ArticleEnvironmental health : a global access science source2022
Modeling present and future climate risk of dengue outbreak, a case study in New Caledonia.
Article in Environmental health : a global access science source, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 24 citations in OpenAlex.
- Influence of Both La Nina and Island Isolation During COVID-19 on the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases in New Caledonia.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- The Effect of Increased Temperature on Dengue Virus in the VectorTropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- Spatial Risk Factors of Vector-Borne Diseases in Pacific Island Countries and Territories: A Scoping Review.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Review
- A State-of-the-Science Review of Long-Term Predictions of Climate Change Impacts on Dengue Transmission Risk.Environmental health perspectives · 2025Review
- Projection of dengue fever transmissibility under climate change in South and Southeast Asian countries.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- Analysis of effects of meteorological variables on dengue incidence in Bangladesh using VAR and Granger causality approach.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Ecological Niche Modelling Approaches: Challenges and Applications in Vector-Borne Diseases.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Review
- Correlation of Dengue and Meteorological Factors in Bangladesh: A Public Health Concern.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Optimal Validated Multi-Factorial Climate Change Risk Assessment for Adaptation Planning and Evaluation of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Indonesia.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
- Public health trends in neurologically relevant infections: a global perspective.Therapeutic advances in infectious diseaseReview
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors at 6 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundDengue dynamics result from the complex interactions between the virus, the host and the vector, all being under the influence of the environment. Several studies explored the link between weather and dengue dynamics and some investigated the impact of climate change on these dynamics. Most attempted to predict incidence rate at a country scale or assess the environmental suitability at a global or regional scale. Here, we propose a new approach which consists in modeling the risk of dengue outbreak at a local scale according to climate conditions and study the evolution of this risk taking climate change into account. We apply this approach in New Caledonia, where high quality data are available.
methodsWe used a statistical estimation of the effective reproduction number (R
resultsWeekly probability of dengue outbreak was best predicted with the number of days when maximal temperature exceeded 30.8°C and the mean of daily precipitation over 80 and 60 days prior to the predicted week respectively. According to scenario RCP8.5, climate will allow dengue outbreak every year in New Caledonia if the epidemiological and entomological contexts remain the same.
conclusionWe identified locally relevant climatic factor driving dengue outbreaks in New Caledonia and assessed the inter-annual and seasonal risk of dengue outbreak under different climate change scenarios up to the year 2100. We introduced a new modeling approach to estimate the risk of dengue outbreak depending on climate conditions. This approach is easily reproducible in other countries provided that reliable epidemiological and climate data are available.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.