Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35057770›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2022

To isolate or not to isolate: the impact of changing behavior on COVID-19 transmission.

Folashade B Agusto, Igor V Erovenko, Alexander Fulk, Qays Abu-Saymeh, Daniel Romero-Alvarez, Joan Ponce, Suzanne Sindi, Omayra Ortega, Jarron M Saint Onge, A Townsend Peterson

Erratum issuedOpen access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
6.7field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 50 citations in OpenAlex.

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  8. A mathematical model for the co-dynamics of COVID-19 and tuberculosis.Mathematics and computers in simulation · 2023
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  19. A game-theoretic model of lymphatic filariasis prevention.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 6 institutions in 1 country.

Folashade B AgustoUniversity of Kansas, Lawrence, 66045, KS, USA. fbagusto@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6137-6480
Igor V ErovenkoUniversity of North Carolina at Greensboro, Greensboro, 27412, NC, USA.
Alexander FulkUniversity of Kansas, Lawrence, 66045, KS, USA.
Qays Abu-SaymehUniversity of Kansas, Lawrence, 66045, KS, USA.
Daniel Romero-AlvarezUniversity of Kansas, Lawrence, 66045, KS, USA.
Joan PoncePurdue University, West Lafayette, 47907, IN, USA.
Suzanne SindiUniversity of California Merced, Merced, 95343, CA, USA.
Omayra OrtegaSonoma State University, Rohnert Park, 94928, CA, USA.
Jarron M Saint OngeUniversity of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City, 66160, KS, USA.
A Townsend PetersonUniversity of Kansas, Lawrence, 66045, KS, USA.
University of Kansas · USPurdue University West Lafayette · USSonoma State University · USUniversity of California, Merced · USUniversity of Kansas Medical Center · USUniversity of North Carolina at Greensboro · US

Funding

National Science Foundation DMS 2028297
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 25 million cases and 800 thousand deaths worldwide to date. In early days of the pandemic, neither vaccines nor therapeutic drugs were available for this novel coronavirus. All measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 are thus based on reducing contact between infected and susceptible individuals. Most of these measures such as quarantine and self-isolation require voluntary compliance by the population. However, humans may act in their (perceived) self-interest only.

methodsWe construct a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission with quarantine and hospitalization coupled with a dynamic game model of adaptive human behavior. Susceptible and infected individuals adopt various behavioral strategies based on perceived prevalence and burden of the disease and sensitivity to isolation measures, and they evolve their strategies using a social learning algorithm (imitation dynamics).

resultsThis results in complex interplay between the epidemiological model, which affects success of different strategies, and the game-theoretic behavioral model, which in turn affects the spread of the disease. We found that the second wave of the pandemic, which has been observed in the US, can be attributed to rational behavior of susceptible individuals, and that multiple waves of the pandemic are possible if the rate of social learning of infected individuals is sufficiently high.

conclusionsTo reduce the burden of the disease on the society, it is necessary to incentivize such altruistic behavior by infected individuals as voluntary self-isolation.

Indexed as

COVID-19PandemicsEpidemiological ModelsHumansQuarantineSARS-CoV-2COVID-19Game theoryHuman behaviorImitation dynamicsIsolation and quarantinePerception of risk

Identifiers

PMID35057770
PMCPMC8771191
OpenAlexW4225795184

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.