Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35051129›Full record

ArticleTropical medicine and infectious disease2022

TB Hackathon: Development and Comparison of Five Models to Predict Subnational Tuberculosis Prevalence in Pakistan.

Sandra Alba, Ente Rood, Fulvia Mecatti, Jennifer M Ross, Peter J Dodd, Stewart Chang, Matthys Potgieter, Gaia Bertarelli, Nathaniel J Henry, Kate E LeGrand and 9 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Tropical medicine and infectious disease, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Sandra AlbaKIT Royal Tropical Institute, 1092 AD Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-2435-624X
Ente RoodKIT Royal Tropical Institute, 1092 AD Amsterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0001-8408-7702
Fulvia MecattiDepartment of Sociology and Social Sciences, University of Milano Bicocca, 20126 Milan, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-0403-9231
Jennifer M RossDepartments of Global Health and Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5677-939X
Peter J DoddSchool of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DA, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5825-9347
Stewart ChangInstitute for Disease Modeling, Seattle, WA 98109, USA.
Matthys PotgieterEpcon, 2000 Antwerp, Belgium.
Gaia BertarelliSant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, 56127 Pisa, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-1099-530X
Nathaniel J HenryBig Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.
Kate E LeGrandInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98109, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2690-3198
William TrouleauÉcole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland.
Debebe ShawenoSchool of Health and Related Research, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DA, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9596-5443
Peter MacPhersonMalawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme, Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre 312225, Malawi.ORCID 0000-0002-0329-9613
Zhi Zhen QinStop TB Partnership, 1218 Geneva, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-3956-5223
Christina MergenthalerKIT Royal Tropical Institute, 1092 AD Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Federica GiardinaDepartment of Biostatistics, Radboud University Medical Centre, 6525 GA Nijmegen, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-3710-0940
Ellen-Wien AugustijnFaculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, 7514 AE Enschede, The Netherlands.
Aurangzaib Quadir BalochPakistan National Tuberculosis Control Programme, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan.
Abdullah LatifPakistan National Tuberculosis Control Programme, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan.

Funding

Modeling approaches to prioritize TB prevention among people with HIV in UgandaK01AI138620 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI ROSS, JENNIFER M · 2019 to 2022
$446k
Medical Research Council MR/P022081/1NIAID NIH HHS K01 AI138620NIAID NIH HHS L30 AI140333Wellcome Trust 206575/Z/17/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Pakistan's national tuberculosis control programme (NTP) is among the many programmes worldwide that value the importance of subnational tuberculosis (TB) burden estimates to support disease control efforts, but do not have reliable estimates. A hackathon was thus organised to solicit the development and comparison of several models for small area estimation of TB. The TB hackathon was launched in April 2019. Participating teams were requested to produce district-level estimates of bacteriologically positive TB prevalence among adults (over 15 years of age) for 2018. The NTP provided case-based data from their 2010-2011 TB prevalence survey, along with data relating to TB screening, testing and treatment for the period between 2010-2011 and 2018. Five teams submitted district-level TB prevalence estimates, methodological details and programming code. Although the geographical distribution of TB prevalence varied considerably across models, we identified several districts with consistently low notification-to-prevalence ratios. The hackathon highlighted the challenges of generating granular spatiotemporal TB prevalence forecasts based on a cross-sectional prevalence survey data and other data sources. Nevertheless, it provided a range of approaches to subnational disease modelling. The NTP's use and plans for these outputs shows that, limitations notwithstanding, they can be valuable for programme planning.

Indexed as

forecastingpredictive modellingsmall area estimationspatial epidemiologysubnational prevalencetuberculosis burden

Identifiers

PMID35051129
PMCPMC8780063

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.