Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35050387›Full record

ArticleEuropean journal of trauma and emergency surgery : official publication of the European Trauma Society2022

The ARISCAT score is a promising model to predict postoperative pulmonary complications after major emergency abdominal surgery: an external validation in a Danish cohort.

Dunja Kokotovic, Thea Helene Degett, Sarah Ekeloef, Jakob Burcharth

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Article in European journal of trauma and emergency surgery : official publication of the European Trauma Society, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
2.8field-weighted citation impact, top 9% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 21 citations in OpenAlex.

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  12. Acute management of pneumonia in adult patients.Singapore medical journal · 2023
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Dunja KokotovicDepartment of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Copenhagen University Hospital-Herlev and Gentofte, Copenhagen, Denmark. dunja.kokotovic@hotmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1544-8927
Thea Helene DegettDepartment of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Køge, Denmark.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8224-6052
Sarah EkeloefDepartment of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Køge, Denmark.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2532-4063
Jakob BurcharthDepartment of Surgery, Zealand University Hospital, Køge, Denmark.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8367-7831
Zealand University Hospital Køge · DKDanish Cancer Society · DKGentofte Hospital · DK

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposePostoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) occur in up to 30% of patients undergoing surgery and are a significant contributor to the overall risk of surgery. A preoperative risk prediction tool for postoperative pulmonary complications could succour clinical identification of patients at increased risk and support clinical decision making. This original study aimed to externally validate a risk model for predicting postoperative pulmonary complications (ARISCAT) in a cohort of patients undergoing major emergency abdominal surgery at a Danish University Hospital.

methodsARISCAT was validated prospectively in a cohort of patients undergoing major emergency abdominal surgery between March 2017 and January 2019. Predicted PPCs by ARISCAT were compared with observed PPCs. ARISCAT was validated with calibration, discrimination and accuracy and in adherence to the TRIPOD statement.

resultsThe study included a total of 585 patients with a median age of 70 years. The majority of patients underwent emergency laparotomy without bowel resection. The predicted PPC frequency by ARISCAT was 24.9%, while the observed frequency of PPCs in the cohort was 36.1%. The slope of the calibration plot was 0.9546, the y axis interception was 0.1269 and the plot was well fitted to a linear slope. The Hosmer Lemeshow goodness-of-fit analysis showed good calibration (p > 0.25). ARISCAT showed good discrimination with AUC 0.83 (95% CI 0.79-0.86) on a receiver-operating characteristics curve and the accuracy was also good with a Brier score of 0.19.

conclusionsARISCAT was a promising tool to predict PPCs in a high-risk surgical population undergoing major emergency abdominal surgery.

Indexed as

AbdomenPostoperative ComplicationsAgedDenmarkHumansLungRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsAbdominal surgeryEmergency surgeryLaparotomyPostoperative pulmonary complications

Identifiers

PMID35050387
OpenAlexW4205547332

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.