Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35042945›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2022

Harnessing Artificial Intelligence to assess the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the second wave of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic across the world.

Sile Tao, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Jianhong Wu, Bruce Mellado, Jude Dzevela Kong

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.8field-weighted citation impact, top 17% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 13 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023
    Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Sile Tao *Quartic.ai, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Nicola Luigi Bragazzi *Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada.
Jianhong WuAfrica-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada.
Bruce MelladoSchool of Physics, Institute for Collider Particle Physics, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Jude Dzevela KongAfrica-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3, Canada. jdkong@yorku.ca.
York University · CAArtificial Intelligence in Medicine (Canada) · CAUniversity of the Witwatersrand · ZA

Funding

International Development Research Centre 109559-001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In the present paper, we aimed to determine the influence of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) enforced during the first wave of COVID-19 across countries on the spreading rate of COVID-19 during the second wave. For this purpose, we took into account national-level climatic, environmental, clinical, health, economic, pollution, social, and demographic factors. We estimated the growth of the first and second wave across countries by fitting a logistic model to daily-reported case numbers, up to the first and second epidemic peaks. We estimated the basic and effective (second wave) reproduction numbers across countries. Next, we used a random forest algorithm to study the association between the growth rate of the second wave and NPIs as well as pre-existing country-specific characteristics. Lastly, we compared the growth rate of the first and second waves of COVID-19. The top three factors associated with the growth of the second wave were body mass index, the number of days that the government sets restrictions on requiring facial coverings outside the home at all times, and restrictions on gatherings of 10 people or less. Artificial intelligence techniques can help scholars as well as decision and policy-makers estimate the effectiveness of public health policies, and implement "smart" interventions, which are as efficacious as stringent ones.

Indexed as

Artificial IntelligenceModels, BiologicalSARS-CoV-2COVID-19HumansPandemics

Identifiers

PMID35042945
PMCPMC8766477
OpenAlexW4206456449

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.