Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35038629›Full record

ArticlePublic health2022

Investigating the association between COVID-19 vaccination and care home outbreak frequency and duration.

D T Bradley, S Murphy, P McWilliams, S Arnold, S Lavery, J Murphy, S de Lusignan, R Hobbs, R S M Tsang, A Akbari and 9 more

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Observational
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

D T BradleyPublic Health Agency, Belfast, UK; Centre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK.
S MurphyCentre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK. Electronic address: siobhan.murphy@qub.ac.uk.
P McWilliamsStrategic Investment Board, Belfast, UK.
S ArnoldPublic Health Agency, Belfast, UK.
S LaveryPublic Health Agency, Belfast, UK.
J MurphyPublic Health Agency, Belfast, UK.
S de LusignanNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
R HobbsNuffield Department of Health Care Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
R S M TsangNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
A AkbariPopulation Data Science and Health Data Research UK, Swansea University, Swansea, UK.
F TorabiPopulation Data Science, Swansea University Medical School, UK.
J BeggsBREATHE- The Health Data Research Hub For Respiratory Health, UK.
A ChuterBREATHE- The Health Data Research Hub For Respiratory Health, UK.
T ShiUsher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
E VasileiouUsher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
C RobertsonPublic Health Scotland, UK; University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK.
A SheikhUsher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK; BREATHE- The Health Data Research Hub For Respiratory Health, UK.
H ReidPublic Health Agency, Belfast, UK.
D O'ReillyCentre for Public Health, Queen's University Belfast, Belfast, UK.

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_PC_20058
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesAt the end of 2020, many countries commenced a vaccination programme against SARS-CoV-2. Public health authorities aim to prevent and interrupt outbreaks of infectious disease in social care settings. We aimed to investigate the association between the introduction of the vaccination programme and the frequency and duration of COVID-19 outbreaks in Northern Ireland (NI). STUDY

designWe undertook an ecological study using routinely available national data.

methodsWe used Poisson regression to measure the relationship between the number of RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes, and as a measure of community COVID-19 prevalence, the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey estimated the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 in NI. We estimated the change in this relationship and estimated the expected number of care home outbreaks in the absence of the vaccination programme. A Cox proportional hazards model estimated the hazard ratio of a confirmed COVID-19 care home outbreak closure.

resultsCare home outbreaks reduced by two-thirds compared to expected following the introduction of the vaccination programme, from a projected 1625 COVID-19 outbreaks (95% prediction interval 1553-1694) between 7 December 2020 and 28 October 2021 to an observed 501. We estimated an adjusted hazard ratio of 2.53 of the outbreak closure assuming a 21-day lag for immunity.

conclusionsThese findings describe the association of the vaccination with a reduction in outbreak frequency and duration across NI care homes. This indicates probable reduced harm and disruption from COVID-19 in social care settings following vaccination. Future research using individual level data from care home residents will be needed to investigate the effectiveness of the vaccines and the duration of their effects.

Indexed as

COVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesDisease OutbreaksHumansSARS-CoV-2VaccinationCOVID-19 VaccinesCare homesCOVID-19OutbreakSARS-CoV-2Vaccination

Identifiers

PMID35038629
PMCPMC8683272

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.