ArticleStatistical methods in medical research2022
Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number.
Article in Statistical methods in medical research, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- The impact of shielding on COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths during 2020 in England: a transmission modelling evaluation using the OpenSAFELY platform.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- A retrospective assessment of forecasting the peak of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 wave in England.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- When should lockdown be implemented? Devising cost-effective strategies for managing epidemics amid vaccine uncertainty.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Inferring community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom using the ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Is SARS-CoV-2 elimination or mitigation best? Regional and disease characteristics determine the recommended strategy.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Combining models to generate consensus medium-term projections of hospital admissions, occupancy and deaths relating to COVID-19 in England.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- An approximate diffusion process for environmental stochasticity in infectious disease transmission modelling.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- The impacts of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose separation and targeting on the COVID-19 epidemic in England.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Modelling the epidemiological implications for SARS-CoV-2 of Christmas household bubbles in England.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Patterns of reported infection and reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 in England.Journal of theoretical biology · 2023Article
- Minimising the use of costly control measures in an epidemic elimination strategy: A simple mathematical model.Mathematical biosciences · 2022Article
- Comparison of the 2021 COVID-19 roadmap projections against public health data in England.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study.Royal Society open science · 2022Article
- An assessment of the vaccination of school-aged children in England against SARS-CoV-2.BMC medicine · 2022Article
- Model-Based Evaluation of Transmissibility and Intervention Measures for a COVID-19 Outbreak in Xiamen City, China.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Precautionary breaks: Planned, limited duration circuit breaks to control the prevalence of SARS-CoV2 and the burden of COVID-19 disease.Epidemics · 2021Article
- Possible future waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection generated by variants of concern with a range of characteristics.Nature communications · 2021Article
- The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2021Article
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8 authors.
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore the need for policy makers to receive timely and ongoing scientific guidance in response to this recently emerged human infectious disease. Fitting mathematical models of infectious disease transmission to the available epidemiological data provide a key statistical tool for understanding the many quantities of interest that are not explicit in the underlying epidemiological data streams. Of these, the effective reproduction number, [Formula: see text], has taken on special significance in terms of the general understanding of whether the epidemic is under control ([Formula: see text]). Unfortunately, none of the epidemiological data streams are designed for modelling, hence assimilating information from multiple (often changing) sources of data is a major challenge that is particularly stark in novel disease outbreaks. Here, focusing on the dynamics of the first wave (March-June 2020), we present in some detail the inference scheme employed for calibrating the Warwick COVID-19 model to the available public health data streams, which span hospitalisations, critical care occupancy, mortality and serological testing. We then perform computational simulations, making use of the acquired parameter posterior distributions, to assess how the accuracy of short-term predictions varied over the time course of the outbreak. To conclude, we compare how refinements to data streams and model structure impact estimates of epidemiological measures, including the estimated growth rate and daily incidence.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.