Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35036983›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Europe2022

Mortality among Care Home Residents in England during the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study of 4.3 million adults over the age of 65.

Anna Schultze, Emily Nightingale, David Evans, William Hulme, Alicia Rosello, Chris Bates, Jonathan Cockburn, Brian MacKenna, Helen J Curtis, Caroline E Morton and 32 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet regional health. Europe, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 38 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
38citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

38 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Declining demands or constraining supply? Explaining the trend of care home entry in England 2001-2021.The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

42 authors.

Anna SchultzeLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Emily NightingaleLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
David EvansThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
William HulmeThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
Alicia RoselloLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Chris BatesTPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, LS18 5PX.
Jonathan CockburnTPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, LS18 5PX.
Brian MacKennaThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
Helen J CurtisThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
Caroline E MortonThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
Richard CrokerThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
Seb BaconThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
Helen I McDonaldLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Christopher T RentschLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Krishnan BhaskaranLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Rohini MathurLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Laurie A TomlinsonLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Elizabeth J WilliamsonLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Harriet ForbesLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
John TazareLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Daniel GrintLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Alex J WalkerThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
Peter InglesbyThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
Nicholas J DeVitoThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
Amir MehrkarThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
George HickmanThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
Simon DavyThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
Tom WardThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
Louis FisherThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
Amelia Ca GreenThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
Kevin WingLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Angel Ys WongLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Robert McManusTPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, LS18 5PX.
John ParryTPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, LS18 5PX.
Frank HesterTPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, LS18 5PX.
Sam HarperTPP, TPP House, 129 Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, LS18 5PX.
Stephen Jw EvansLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Ian J DouglasLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Liam SmeethLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Rosalind M EggoLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.
Ben GoldacreThe DataLab, Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, OX26GG.
David A LeonLondon School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT.

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_PC_20058Medical Research Council MR/R010161/1Medical Research Council MR/S003975/1Medical Research Council MR/V015737/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundResidents in care homes have been severely impacted by COVID-19. We describe trends in the mortality risk among residents of care homes compared to private homes.

methodsOn behalf of NHS England we used OpenSAFELY-TPP to calculate monthly age-standardised risks of death due to all causes and COVID-19 among adults aged >=65 years between 1/2/2019 and 31/03/2021. Care home residents were identified using linkage to Care and Quality Commission data.

findingsWe included 4,340,648 people aged 65 years or older on the 1st of February 2019, 2.2% of whom were classified as residing in a care or nursing home. Age-standardised mortality risks were approximately 10 times higher among care home residents compared to those in private housing in February 2019: comparative mortality figure (CMF) = 10.59 (95%CI = 9.51, 11.81) among women, and 10.87 (9.93, 11.90) among men. By April 2020 these relative differences had increased to more than 17 times with CMFs of 17.57 (16.43, 18.79) among women and 18.17 (17.22, 19.17) among men. CMFs did not increase during the second wave, despite a rise in the absolute age-standardised COVID-19 mortality risks.

interpretationCOVID-19 has had a disproportionate impact on the mortality of care home residents in England compared to older residents of private homes, but only in the first wave. This may be explained by a degree of acquired immunity, improved protective measures or changes in the underlying frailty of the populations. The care home population should be prioritised for measures aimed at controlling COVID-19.

fundingMedical Research Council MR/V015737/1.

Indexed as

COVID-19Electronic Health RecordsMortalityNursing HomesOld Age Homes

Identifiers

PMID35036983
PMCPMC8743167

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.