ArticleBMC nephrology2022
Prediction of chronic kidney disease after orthotopic liver transplantation: development and validation of a nomogram model.
Article in BMC nephrology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Incidence and Risk Factors for Progression of Acute Kidney Injury to Chronic Kidney Disease After Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Cohort Study.FASEB journal : official publication of the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology · 2025Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundWe aimed to develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting CKD after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT).
methodsThe retrospective data of 399 patients who underwent transplantation and were followed in our centre were collected. They were randomly assigned to the training set (n = 293) and validation set (n = 106). Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed in the training set to identify predictors of CKD. According to the Cox regression analysis results, a nomogram model was developed and validated. The renal function of recipients was monitored, and the long-term survival prognosis was assessed.
resultsThe incidence of CKD at 5 years after OLT was 25.6%. Cox regression analysis identified several predictors of post-OLT CKD, including recipient age at surgery (HR 1.036, 95% CI 1.006-1.068; p = 0.018), female sex (HR 2.867, 95% CI 1.709-4.810; p < 0.001), preoperative hypertension (HR 1.670, 95% CI 0.962-2.898; p = 0.068), preoperative eGFR (HR 0.996, 95% CI 0.991-1.001; p = 0.143), uric acid at 3 months (HR 1.002, 95% CI 1.001-1.004; p = 0.028), haemoglobin at 3 months (HR 0.970, 95% CI 0.956-0.983; p < 0.001), and average concentration of cyclosporine A at 3 months (HR 1.002, 95% CI 1.001-1.003; p < 0.001). According to these parameters, a nomogram model for predicting CKD after OLT was constructed and validated. The C-indices were 0.75 and 0.80 in the training and validation sets. The calibration curve of the nomogram showed that the CKD probabilities predicted by the nomogram agreed with the observed probabilities at 1, 3, and 5 years after OLT (p > 0.05). Renal function declined slowly year by year, and there were significant differences between patients divided by these predictors. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the survival prognosis of recipients decreased significantly with the progression of renal function.
conclusionsWith excellent predictive abilities, the nomogram may be a simple and reliable tool to identify patients at high risk for CKD and poor long-term prognosis after OLT.
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