An Explainable Machine Learning Approach Reveals Prognostic Significance of Right Ventricular Dysfunction in Nonischemic Cardiomyopathy.

objectivesThe authors implemented an explainable machine learning (ML) model to gain insight into the association between cardiac magnetic resonance markers and adverse outcomes of cardiovascular hospitalization and all-cause death (composite endpoint) in patients with nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NICM).

backgroundRisk stratification of patients with NICM remains challenging. An explainable ML model has the potential to provide insight into the contributions of different risk markers in the prediction model.

methodsAn explainable ML model based on extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machines was developed using cardiac magnetic resonance and clinical parameters. The study cohorts consist of patients with NICM from 2 academic medical centers: Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC) and Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH), with 328 and 214 patients, respectively. XGBoost was trained on 70% of patients from the BIDMC cohort and evaluated based on the other 30% as internal validation. The model was externally validated using the BWH cohort. To investigate the contribution of different features in our risk prediction model, we used Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis.

resultsDuring a mean follow-up duration of 40 months, 34 patients from BIDMC and 33 patients from BWH experienced the composite endpoint. The area under the curve for predicting the composite endpoint was 0.71 for the internal BIDMC validation and 0.69 for the BWH cohort. SHAP analysis identified parameters associated with right ventricular (RV) dysfunction and remodeling as primary markers of adverse outcomes. High risk thresholds were identified by SHAP analysis and thus provided thresholds for top predictive continuous clinical variables.

conclusionsAn explainable ML-based risk prediction model has the potential to identify patients with NICM at risk for cardiovascular hospitalization and all-cause death. RV ejection fraction, end-systolic and end-diastolic volumes (as indicators of RV dysfunction and remodeling) were determined to be major risk markers.