Predicting joint effects of multiple land consolidation strategies on ecosystem service interactions.

Land consolidation has greatly altered land use patterns and the corresponding ecosystem services (ES) in China. However, the potential consequences of different consolidation measures for the interaction of ecosystem services are still largely unknown. Here, from a simulation perspective, we predict potential separate and joint influences of three land consolidation scenarios, i.e., reclamation of abandoned mining land, intensive construction land use and their integrated scenario, on the tradeoff/ synergic relationships of food production, carbon storage, habitat quality, and water conservation. Zhaoyuan city, one of China's top 100 counties at a green transformation stage of mining industry, is taken as a case study. Our results show that land consolidation will significantly mitigate the loss of farmland and vegetation while improving use efficiency of construction land. By 2035, food production is likely to present more trade-offs with other ES, whereas carbon storage, habitat quality, and water conservation will be highly synergic with each other. In contrast, consolidation of rural/urban construction land will be more feasible to coordinate multiple ecosystem services, as well as mitigating urban expansion and rural hollowing. This work enables us to identify the optimal combinations of multiple land consolidation measures towards sustainable ecosystem management.