Estimating Distributions of Breast Cancer Onset and Growth in a Swedish Mammography Screening Cohort.

backgroundIn recent years, biologically motivated continuous tumor growth models have been introduced for breast cancer screening data. These provide a novel framework from which mammography screening effectiveness can be studied.

methodsWe use a newly developed natural history model, which is unique in that it includes a carcinogenesis model for tumor onset, to analyze data from a large Swedish mammography cohort consisting of 65,536 participants, followed for periods of up to 6.5 years. Using patient data on age at diagnosis, tumor size, and mode of detection, as well as screening histories, we estimate distributions of patient's age at onset, (inverse) tumor growth rates, symptomatic detection rates, and screening sensitivities. We also allow the growth rate distribution to depend on the age at onset.

resultsWe estimate that by the age of 75, 13.4% of women have experienced onset. On the basis of a model that accounts for the role of mammographic density in screening sensitivity, we estimated median tumor doubling times of 167 days for tumors with onset occurring at age 40, and 207 days for tumors with onset occurring at age 60.

conclusionsWith breast cancer natural history models and population screening data, we can estimate latent processes of tumor onset, tumor growth, and mammography screening sensitivity. We can also study the relationship between the age at onset and tumor growth rates. IMPACT: Quantifying the underlying processes of breast cancer progression is important in the era of individualized screening.