ArticleJournal of the National Cancer Institute2022
Cumulative Advanced Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Model Developed in a Screening Mammography Population.
Article in Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06629896 (Comparison Between Contrast-Enhanced Mammography and Magnetic Resonance Imaging in the Surveillance of High-Risk Women for Breast Cancer), which is not on this map. Cited by 34 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Comparison Between Contrast-Enhanced Mammography and Magnetic Resonance Imaging in the Surveillance of High-Risk Women for Breast Cancer: The Randomized Controlled Trial 'Con-trust. Funded by European Commission NextGenerationEU - Ministero Della Salute PNRR: M6/C2_CALL 2023 Full Proposal
Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 25 citations in OpenAlex.
- Current state of mammography-based artificial intelligence for future breast cancer risk prediction: a systematic review.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2026Pooled it
- A systematic review of prediction models for risk of breast cancer.BMC cancer · 2025Pooled it
- Advanced Versus Invasive Breast Cancer Risk in a Screening Population: Implications for Risk-based Prevention and Screening Strategies.Journal of general internal medicine · 2026Article
- Advancing Evidence of the Associations between specific Benign Breast Diagnoses and Future Breast Cancer Risk.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026Article
- Performance of Statistical and Machine Learning Risk Prediction Models for Advanced Breast Cancer.Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology · 2026Article
- Performance of breast cancer risk prediction algorithms across mammography systems in the UK screening programme.NPJ digital medicine · 2026Article
- Breast cancer risk level and prediction of tumor aggressiveness in the Athena Breast Health Network.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2026Article
- Five-Year Absolute Risk-Based and Age-Based Breast Cancer Screening in the US.JAMA network open · 2026Article
- Review
- Effect of race and ethnicity on advanced breast cancer risk prediction model performance.NPJ digital medicine · 2025Article
- Deep learning mammography-based breast cancer risk model, its serial change, and breast cancer mortality.Breast cancer (Tokyo, Japan) · 2025Article
- Artificial intelligence-enhanced handheld breast ultrasound for screening: A systematic review of diagnostic test accuracy.PLOS digital health · 2025Article
- Mammographic calcifications association with risk of advanced breast cancer.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2025Article
- Racial Differences in Screening Eligibility by Breast Density After State-Level Insurance Expansion.JAMA network open · 2025Article
- Supplemental breast cancer screening after negative mammography in US women with dense breasts.Journal of the National Cancer Institute · 2025Article
- The Application of Preventive Medicine in the Future Digital Health Era.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Review
- A roadmap to reduce the incidence and mortality of breast cancer by rethinking our approach to women's health.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2025Review
- Relative Timing of Mammography and MRI for Breast Cancer Screening: Impact on Performance Evaluation.Journal of the American College of Radiology : JACR · 2024Article
- Screening Mammography for 40-Year-Old Women-Whose Decision?JAMA internal medicine · 2024Article
- Association Between False-Positive Results and Return to Screening Mammography in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium Cohort.Annals of internal medicine · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 11 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundEstimating advanced breast cancer risk in women undergoing annual or biennial mammography could identify women who may benefit from less or more intensive screening. We developed an actionable model to predict cumulative 6-year advanced cancer (prognostic pathologic stage II or higher) risk according to screening interval.
methodsWe included 931 186 women aged 40-74 years in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium undergoing 2 542 382 annual (prior mammogram within 11-18 months) or 752 049 biennial (prior within 19-30 months) screening mammograms. The prediction model includes age, race and ethnicity, body mass index, breast density, family history of breast cancer, and prior breast biopsy subdivided by menopausal status and screening interval. We used fivefold cross-validation to internally validate model performance. We defined higher than 95th percentile as high risk (>0.658%), higher than 75th percentile to 95th or less percentile as intermediate risk (0.380%-0.658%), and 75th or less percentile as low to average risk (<0.380%).
resultsObesity, high breast density, and proliferative disease with atypia were strongly associated with advanced cancer. The model is well calibrated and has an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.682 (95% confidence interval = 0.670 to 0.694). Based on women's predicted advanced cancer risk under annual and biennial screening, 69.1% had low or average risk regardless of screening interval, 12.4% intermediate risk with biennial screening and average risk with annual screening, and 17.4% intermediate or high risk regardless of screening interval.
conclusionMost women have low or average advanced cancer risk and can undergo biennial screening. Intermediate-risk women may consider annual screening, and high-risk women may consider supplemental imaging in addition to annual screening.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.