ArticleOpen forum infectious diseases2022
Estimating the Impact of Low Influenza Activity in 2020 on Population Immunity and Future Influenza Seasons in the United States.
Article in Open forum infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 29 citations in OpenAlex.
- Monitoring School Absenteeism for Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Pooled it
- Safety and immunogenicity of a high-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine administered concomitantly with a third dose of the mRNA-1273 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in adults aged ≥65 years: a phase 2, randomised, open-label study.The Lancet. Respiratory medicine · 2022Trial
- Discrete-Event Simulation Modeling Framework for Cancer Interventions and Population Health in R (DESCIPHR): An Open-Source Pipeline.PharmacoEconomics · 2026Article
- Increasing child vaccination coverage can reduce influenza cases across age groups: An agent-based modeling study.The Journal of infection · 2025Article
- Influenza Vaccination, Household Composition, and Race-Based Differences in Influenza Incidence: An Agent-Based Modeling Study.American journal of public health · 2025Article
- Progress in combination vaccines and the co-administration of influenza virus and SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Review
- Molecular epidemiology and phylogenetic analysis of influenza viruses A (H3N2) and B/Victoria during the COVID-19 pandemic in Guangdong, China.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2024Article
- Increased influenza severity in children in the wake of SARS-CoV-2.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2023Article
- Article
- Assessment of 2021/22 influenza epidemic scenarios in Italy during SARS-CoV-2 outbreak.PloS one · 2023Article
- How the COVID 19 pandemic will shape influenza public health initiatives: The UK experience.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2022Article
- Re-Emergence of Circulation of Seasonal Influenza during COVID-19 Pandemic in Russia and Receptor Specificity of New and Dominant Clade 3C.2a1b.2a.2 A(H3N2) Viruses in 2021-2022.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- National Influenza Annual Report, Canada, 2021-2022: A brief, late influenza epidemic.Canada communicable disease report = Releve des maladies transmissibles au Canada · 2022Article
- Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Vaccination Boosts Neutralizing Activity Against Seasonal Human Coronaviruses.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022Article
- Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Influenza Vaccination Intention: A Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review.Vaccines · 2022Review
- Impact of COVID-19 Prevention and Control on the Influenza Epidemic in China: A Time Series Study.Health data science · 2022Article
- The importance of influenza vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundInfluenza activity in the 2020-2021 season was remarkably low, likely due to implementation of public health preventive measures such as social distancing, mask wearing, and school closure. With waning immunity, the impact of low influenza activity in the 2020-2021 season on the following season is unknown.
methodsWe built a multistrain compartmental model that captures immunity over multiple influenza seasons in the United States. Compared with the counterfactual case, where influenza activity remained at the normal level in 2020-2021, we estimated the change in the number of hospitalizations when the transmission rate was decreased by 20% in 2020-2021. We varied the level of vaccine uptake and effectiveness in 2021-2022. We measured the change in population immunity over time by varying the number of seasons with lowered influenza activity.
resultsWith the lowered influenza activity in 2020-2021, the model estimated 102 000 (95% CI, 57 000-152 000) additional hospitalizations in 2021-2022, without changes in vaccine uptake and effectiveness. The estimated changes in hospitalizations varied depending on the level of vaccine uptake and effectiveness in the following year. Achieving a 50% increase in vaccine coverage was necessary to avert the expected increase in hospitalization in the next influenza season. If the low influenza activity were to continue over several seasons, population immunity would remain low during those seasons, with 48% of the population susceptible to influenza infection.
conclusionsOur study projected a large compensatory influenza season in 2021-2022 due to a light season in 2020-2021. However, higher influenza vaccine uptake would reduce this projected increase in influenza.
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