ArticleSSM - population health2022
County-level estimates of excess mortality associated with COVID-19 in the United States.
Article in SSM - population health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers.
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Who cites it
30 citing papers in PubMed.
- Excess Mortality Among People with HIV in Florida During the Initial Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Surveillance-Based Analysis.AIDS and behavior · 2026Article
- Spatial accessibility to healthcare facilities and the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 infection: evidence from the reasons for geographic and racial differences in stroke (REGARDS) study, United States, March 2020 to September 2021.Preventive medicine reports · 2026Article
- Applying machine learning to identify unrecognized COVID-19 deaths recorded as other causes of death in the United States.Science advances · 2026Article
- Spatial and demographic heterogeneity in excess mortality in the United States, 2020-2023: a multimodel approach.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- The spatiotemporal dynamics of COVID-19 in Europe: time-series clustering maps 5 distinct trajectories to spatial patterns.Population health metrics · 2025Article
- Associations between previous local health expenditures and COVID-19 mortality outcomes large cities in the united states: results from a forward-selecting linear regression analysis.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2025Article
- Regional variations in Italy's COVID-19 death toll: a descriptive analysis of excess mortality and associated factors from 2020 to 2021.Population health metrics · 2025Article
- Excess mortality in older adults and cumulative excess mortality across all ages during the COVID-19 pandemic in the 20 countries with the highest mortality rates worldwide.Osong public health and research perspectives · 2025Article
- All-Cause and Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the First Two Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic in North-East of Iran: Reiterating the Significance of High-Quality Healthcare Systems.International journal of health policy and management · 2025Article
- Excess deaths associated with COVID-19 by rurality and demographic factors in the United States.The Journal of rural health : official journal of the American Rural Health Association and the National Rural Health Care Association · 2024Article
- Excess natural-cause mortality in US counties and its association with reported COVID-19 deaths.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Excess Mortality in the United States, 2020-21: County-level Estimates for Population Groups and Associations with Social Vulnerability.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Landscape-Scale Epidemiological Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in White-Tailed Deer.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2024Article
- Age and sex differences in cause-specific excess mortality and years of life lost associated with COVID-19 infection in the Swedish population.European journal of public health · 2023Observational
- Gender differences in estimated excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Monthly excess mortality across counties in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, March 2020 to February 2022.Science advances · 2023Article
- The impacts of Covid-19 absences on workers.Journal of public economics · 2023Article
- COVID-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity in US Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas, March 2020 to February 2022.JAMA network open · 2023Article
- Premature cardiovascular disease mortality with overweight and obesity as a risk factor: estimating excess mortality in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.International journal of obesity (2005) · 2023Article
- Intergenerational coresidence and the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States.Economics and human biology · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. has been largely monitored using death certificates containing reference to COVID-19. However, prior analyses reveal that a significant percentage of excess deaths associated with the pandemic were not directly assigned to COVID-19. In this study, we estimated a generalized linear model of expected mortality based on historical trends in deaths by county of residence between 2011 and 2019. We used the results of the model to generate estimates of excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 in 2020 for 1470 county sets in the U.S. representing 3138 counties. Across the country, we estimated that 438,386 excess deaths occurred in 2020, among which 87.5% were assigned to COVID-19. Some regions (Mideast, Great Lakes, New England, and Far West) reported the most excess deaths in large central metros, whereas other regions (Southwest, Southeast, Plains, and Rocky Mountains) reported the highest excess mortality in nonmetro areas. The proportion assigned to COVID-19 was lowest in large central metro areas (79.3%). Regionally, the proportion of excess deaths assigned to COVID-19 was lowest in the Southeast (81.6%), Southwest (82.6%), Far West (83.7%), and Rocky Mountains (86.7%). Across the regions, the number of excess deaths exceeded the number of directly assigned COVID-19 deaths in most counties. The exception to this pattern occurred in New England, which reported more directly assigned COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in metro and nonmetro areas. Many county sets had substantial numbers of excess deaths that were not accounted for in direct COVID-19 death counts. Estimates of excess mortality at the local level can inform the allocation of resources to areas most impacted by the pandemic and contribute to positive behavior feedback loops, such as increases in mask-wearing and vaccine uptake.
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