Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35016734›Full record

ArticleDiagnostic and prognostic research2022

Performance of binary prediction models in high-correlation low-dimensional settings: a comparison of methods.

Artuur M Leeuwenberg, Maarten van Smeden, Johannes A Langendijk, Arjen van der Schaaf, Murielle E Mauer, Karel G M Moons, Johannes B Reitsma, Ewoud Schuit

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Diagnostic and prognostic research, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
21citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

21 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Artuur M LeeuwenbergJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands. a.m.leeuwenberg-15@umcutrecht.nl.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2892-0285
Maarten van SmedenJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Johannes A LangendijkDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen University, Groningen, The Netherlands.
Arjen van der SchaafDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen University, Groningen, The Netherlands.
Murielle E MauerEuropean Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Headquarters, Brussels, Belgium.
Karel G M MoonsJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Johannes B ReitsmaJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Ewoud SchuitJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

Funding

H2020 European Institute of Innovation and Technology 825162
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundClinical prediction models are developed widely across medical disciplines. When predictors in such models are highly collinear, unexpected or spurious predictor-outcome associations may occur, thereby potentially reducing face-validity of the prediction model. Collinearity can be dealt with by exclusion of collinear predictors, but when there is no a priori motivation (besides collinearity) to include or exclude specific predictors, such an approach is arbitrary and possibly inappropriate.

methodsWe compare different methods to address collinearity, including shrinkage, dimensionality reduction, and constrained optimization. The effectiveness of these methods is illustrated via simulations.

resultsIn the conducted simulations, no effect of collinearity was observed on predictive outcomes (AUC, R

conclusionsBased on the results, we would recommend refraining from data-driven predictor selection approaches in the presence of high collinearity, because of the increased instability of predictor selection, even in relatively high events-per-variable settings. The selection of certain predictors over others may disproportionally give the impression that included predictors have a stronger association with the outcome than excluded predictors.

Indexed as

Multi-collinearityNormal-tissue complication probability modelsPrediction models

Identifiers

PMID35016734
PMCPMC8751246

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.