ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2022
Potential Effects of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Transmission: A Modeling Study in 32 US Cities.
Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed.
- Trends and Disruptions in Antiretroviral Treatment Enrollment in Haiti, 2018-2024.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2026Article
- Article
- Projecting the Clinical and Economic Impacts of Changes to HIV Care Among Adolescents and Young Adults in the United States: Lessons From the COVID-19 Pandemic.Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society · 2024Article
- Scoping review of modelling studies assessing the impact of disruptions to essential health services during COVID-19.BMJ open · 2023Article
- Impacts of COVID-19 on HIV/AIDS-Related Services in California.Journal of the International Association of Providers of AIDS CareArticle
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe degree to which the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic will affect the US human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic is unclear.
methodsWe used the Johns Hopkins Epidemiologic and Economic Model to project HIV infections from 2020 to 2025 in 32 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). We sampled a range of effects of the pandemic on sexual transmission (0-50% reduction), viral suppression among people with HIV (0-40% reduction), HIV testing (0-50% reduction), and pre-exposure prophylaxis use (0-30% reduction), and indexed reductions over time to Google Community Mobility Reports.
resultsSimulations projected reported diagnoses would drop in 2020 and rebound in 2021 or 2022, regardless of underlying incidence. If sexual transmission normalized by July 2021 and HIV care normalized by January 2022, we projected 1161 (1%) more infections from 2020 to 2025 across all 32 cities than if COVID-19 had not occurred. Among "optimistic" simulations in which sexual transmission was sharply reduced and viral suppression was maintained we projected 8% lower incidence (95% credible interval: 14% lower to no change). Among "pessimistic" simulations where sexual transmission was largely unchanged but viral suppression fell, we projected 11% higher incidence (1-21% higher). MSA-specific projections are available at www.jheem.org?covid.
conclusionsThe effects of COVID-19 on HIV transmission remain uncertain and differ between cities. Reported diagnoses of HIV in 2020-2021 are likely to correlate poorly with underlying incidence. Minimizing disruptions to HIV care is critical to mitigating negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV transmission.
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