Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35013654›Full record

ArticleChaos, solitons, and fractals2022

A random forest model for forecasting regional COVID-19 cases utilizing reproduction number estimates and demographic data.

Joseph Galasso, Duy M Cao, Robert Hochberg

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Chaos, solitons, and fractals, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  9. Observational
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  12. Machine Learning and COVID-19: Lessons from SARS-CoV-2.Advances in experimental medicine and biology · 2023
    Article
  13. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Joseph GalassoDepartment of Biology #11, University of Dallas, Irving, TX 75062, USA.
Duy M CaoDepartment of Computer Science #134, University of Dallas, Irving, TX 75062, USA.
Robert HochbergDepartment of Computer Science #50, University of Dallas, Irving, TX 75062, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

During the COVID-19 pandemic, predicting case spikes at the local level is important for a precise, targeted public health response and is generally done with compartmental models. The performance of compartmental models is highly dependent on the accuracy of their assumptions about disease dynamics within a population; thus, such models are susceptible to human error, unexpected events, or unknown characteristics of a novel infectious agent like COVID-19. We present a relatively non-parametric random forest model that forecasts the number of COVID-19 cases at the U.S. county level. Its most prioritized training features are derived from easily accessible, standard epidemiological data (i.e., regional test positivity rate) and the effective reproduction number (

Indexed as

Compartmental modelCOVID-19MobilityRandom forestUS county

Identifiers

PMID35013654
PMCPMC8731233

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.