ArticleScientific reports2022
Developing a prediction model to estimate the true burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in hospitalised children in Western Australia.
Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 17 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 389 citations in OpenAlex.
- Respiratory syncytial virus disease morbidity in Australian infants aged 0 to 6 months: a systematic review with narrative synthesis.BMC public health · 2023Pooled it
- Diagnostic models predicting paediatric viral acute respiratory infections: a systematic review.BMJ open · 2023Pooled it
- Automatic identification of diagnosis from hospital discharge letters via weakly supervised Natural Language Processing.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Observational
- Article
- Risk Groups for Vaccine-Preventable Respiratory Infections in Children and Adults: An Overview of the Australian Environment.Vaccines · 2025Review
- Predicting regional and temporal incidence of RSV and influenza hospitalizations in a birth cohort of young Australian children.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Respiratory syncytial virus preventives for children in Australia: current landscape and future directions.The Medical journal of Australia · 2025Review
- Molecular epidemiology and phylogenetic analysis of human respiratory syncytial virus type B in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.Virus genes · 2025Article
- Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) as a Secondary Diagnosis among Hospitalized Patients in Germany: Outcomes and Economic Burden.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2025Article
- Respiratory Viral Testing Rate Patterns in Young Children Attending Tertiary Care Across Western Australia: A Population-Based Birth Cohort Study.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2024Article
- Personalized Infant Risk Prediction for Severe Respiratory Syncytial Virus Lower Respiratory Tract Infection Requiring Intensive Care Unit Admission.Open forum infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Respiratory syncytial virus burden in children under 2 years old in understudied areas worldwide: gap analysis of available evidence, 2012-2022.Frontiers in pediatrics · 2024Review
- Cohort profile: A population-based record linkage platform to address critical epidemiological evidence gaps in respiratory syncytial virus and other respiratory infections.International journal of population data science · 2024Article
- Multi-faceted analysis and prediction for the outbreak of pediatric respiratory syncytial virus.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2023Article
- Factors Predicting Secondary Respiratory Morbidity Following Early-Life Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections: Population-Based Cohort Study.Open forum infectious diseases · 2023Article
- Assessing the transportability of clinical prediction models for cognitive impairment using causal models.BMC medical research methodology · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of childhood morbidity, however there is no systematic testing in children hospitalised with respiratory symptoms. Therefore, current RSV incidence likely underestimates the true burden. We used probabilistically linked perinatal, hospital, and laboratory records of 321,825 children born in Western Australia (WA), 2000-2012. We generated a predictive model for RSV positivity in hospitalised children aged < 5 years. We applied the model to all hospitalisations in our population-based cohort to determine the true RSV incidence, and under-ascertainment fraction. The model's predictive performance was determined using cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. From 321,825 hospitalisations, 37,784 were tested for RSV (22.8% positive). Predictors of RSV positivity included younger admission age, male sex, non-Aboriginal ethnicity, a diagnosis of bronchiolitis and longer hospital stay. Our model showed good predictive accuracy (AUROC: 0.87). The respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values were 58.4%, 92.2%, 68.6% and 88.3%. The predicted incidence rates of hospitalised RSV for children aged < 3 months was 43.7/1000 child-years (95% CI 42.1-45.4) compared with 31.7/1000 child-years (95% CI 30.3-33.1) from laboratory-confirmed RSV admissions. Findings from our study suggest that the true burden of RSV may be 30-57% higher than current estimates.
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