ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2022
Modelling policy combinations of vaccination and transmission suppression of SARS-CoV-2 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Incorporating Social Determinants of Health in Infectious Disease Models: A Systematic Review of Guidelines.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2024Pooled it
- Estimated COVID-19 severe cases and deaths averted in the first year of the vaccination campaign in Brazil: A retrospective observational study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2023Article
- COVID-19 vaccination and case fatality rates: a case report in a Brazilian municipality.Cadernos de saude publica · 2023Article
- Were public interventions relevant for containing the covid-19 pandemic in Brazil in 2020?Revista de saude publica · 2023Article
- Effect of flight connectivity on the introduction and evolution of the COVID-19 outbreak in Canadian provinces and territories.Journal of travel medicine · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil required a phased program, with priorities for age groups, health workers, and vulnerable people. Social distancing and isolation interventions have been essential to mitigate the advance of the pandemic in several countries. We developed a mathematical model capable of capturing the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 dissemination aligned with social distancing, isolation measures, and vaccination. Surveillance data from the city of Rio de Janeiro provided a case study to analyze possible scenarios, including non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination in the epidemic scenario. Our results demonstrate that the combination of vaccination and policies of transmission suppression potentially lowered the number of hospitalized cases by 380+ and 66+ thousand cases, respectively, compared to an absence of such policies. On top of transmission suppression-only policies, vaccination impacted more than 230+ thousand averted hospitalized cases and 43+ thousand averted deaths. Therefore, health surveillance activities should be maintained along with vaccination planning in scheduled groups until a large vaccinated coverage is reached. Furthermore, this analytical framework enables evaluation of such scenarios.
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