Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34993460›Full record

ArticleCJC open2021

Incidence and Predictors of Heart Failure in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

Philipp Krisai, Linda S B Johnson, Giorgio Moschovitis, Alexander Benz, Chinthanie Ramasundarahettige, William F McIntyre, Jorge A Wong, David Conen, Christian Sticherling, Stuart J Connolly and 1 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in CJC open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
2.5field-weighted citation impact, top 9% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 20 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Incident heart failure in patients with screening-detected atrial fibrillation: a post hoc analysis of the STROKESTOP and STROKESTOP II studies.Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology · 2026
    Trial
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Observational
  7. Observational
  8. Observational
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.

Philipp KrisaiCardiovascular Research Institute Basel, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Linda S B JohnsonDepartment of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden.
Giorgio MoschovitisPopulation Health Research Institute, McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Alexander BenzPopulation Health Research Institute, McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Chinthanie RamasundarahettigePopulation Health Research Institute, McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
William F McIntyrePopulation Health Research Institute, McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Jorge A WongPopulation Health Research Institute, McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
David ConenPopulation Health Research Institute, McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Christian SticherlingCardiovascular Research Institute Basel, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Stuart J ConnollyPopulation Health Research Institute, McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Jeff S HealeyPopulation Health Research Institute, McMaster University and Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Hamilton Health Sciences · CAPopulation Health Research Institute · CAElectrophysiology and Heart Modeling Institute · FRMcMaster University · CAUniversity Hospital of Basel · CH

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundHeart failure (HF) is a frequent cause of hospitalization and death in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Identifying AF patients at risk of HF hospitalization could help select individuals for intensive follow-up and treatment.

methodsWe pooled data from 3 randomized trials (ACTIVE-A, RE-LY, AVERROES) of AF patients, for derivation and internal validation of a risk score for first HF hospitalization. Secondary endpoints were cardiovascular death and a composite of HF hospitalizations and cardiovascular death.

resultsIn 23,503 patients, the mean age was 71.3 years, and 62% were male. Over a mean follow-up of 2.0 years, 875 patients (3.7%) experienced their first HF hospitalization, and 1037 patients (4.4%) died from cardiovascular causes. Incidence rates per 100 patient-years were 1.85 for HF hospitalizations, 2.15 for cardiovascular death, and 3.71 for the composite. Independent predictors for HF hospitalizations included the following: increased age, weight, heart rate and serum creatinine level, lower height and systolic blood pressure, diabetes, vascular disease, valvular disease, heart rhythm, left ventricular hypertrophy, and intraventricular conduction delay. The C-statistic (95% confidence intervals by bootstrap simulations) was 0.717 (0.705-0.732). At 2 years of follow-up, the incidence rate of the primary outcome increased across risk-score quintiles: 0.49, 0.87, 1.29, 2.44, and 4.51 per 100 patient-years, respectively. Patients in the highest quintile had an absolute risk of 6.8% for the primary endpoint at 2 years.

conclusionsIn a large AF population, new-onset HF was common. A combination of characteristics can identify high-risk patients for whom strategies to prevent HF should be considered.

Identifiers

PMID34993460
PMCPMC8712577
OpenAlexW3191652905

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.