Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34992222›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2022

Resilience of countries to COVID-19 correlated with trust.

Timothy M Lenton, Chris A Boulton, Marten Scheffer

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
29citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

29 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. The Role of Trust in COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance: Considerations from a Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Pooled it
  2. How Can Multi-Criteria Portfolio Decision Analysis Help Mitigate Mis/Disinformation?Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2026
    Article
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  8. Meltdown of trust in weakly governed economies.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
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  17. Placing Trust at the Heart of Health Policy and Systems.International journal of health policy and management · 2024
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Timothy M Lenton *Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. t.m.lenton@exeter.ac.uk.
Chris A Boulton *Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Marten SchefferWageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.

Funding

Alan Turing Institute Turing FellowshipLeverhulme Trust RPG-2018-046
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We characterized > 150 countries' resilience to COVID-19 as the nationwide decay rate of daily cases or deaths from peak levels. Resilience to COVID-19 varies by a factor of ~ 40 between countries for cases/capita and ~ 25 for deaths/capita. Trust within society is positively correlated with country-level resilience to COVID-19, as is the adaptive increase in stringency of government interventions when epidemic waves occur. By contrast, countries where governments maintain greater background stringency tend to have lower trust within society and tend to be less resilient. All countries where > 40% agree "most people can be trusted" achieve a near complete reduction of new cases and deaths, but so do several less-trusting societies. As the pandemic progressed, resilience tended to decline, as adaptive increases in stringency also declined. These results add to evidence that trust can improve resilience to epidemics and other unexpected disruptions, of which COVID-19 is unlikely to be the last.

Indexed as

COVID-19Resilience, PsychologicalTrustHumansPandemicsPublic Health

Identifiers

PMID34992222
PMCPMC8738739

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.