ArticleBMC public health2022
Construction and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting the survival of HIV/AIDS adults who received antiretroviral therapy: a cohort between 2003 and 2019 in Nanjing.
Article in BMC public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- The predictive accuracy of machine learning for the risk of death in HIV patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Pooled it
- Development of a mortality risk prediction model for patients on antiretroviral therapy at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital: a retrospective cohort study.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Nomogram model for predicting incomplete immune reconstitution in people living with HIV based on clinical characteristics.Frontiers in immunology · 2026Article
- Construction and validation of a nomogram to predict 1-year mortality risk in patients with HIV/AIDS undergoing maintenance hemodialysis.Renal failure · 2025Article
- Developing and Validating an Inclusive and Cost-Effective Prediction Algorithm for Survival and Death Among People Living With HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa: Protocol for a Meta-Analysis and Case-Control and Cost-Effectiveness Study.JMIR research protocols · 2025Article
- Survival prediction models for people living with HIV based on four machine learning models.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Development and Spatial External Validation of a Predictive Model of Survival Based on Random Survival Forest Analysis for People Living With HIV and AIDS After Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in China: Retrospective Cohort Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Article
- Risk Factors Associated with Virological Failure in HIV Patients with Low Level Viremia: A Retrospective Study.Infection and drug resistance · 2025Article
- Enhancing HIV/STI decision-making: challenges and opportunities in leveraging predictive models for individuals, healthcare providers, and policymakers.Journal of translational medicine · 2024Review
- Risk factors and clinical prediction models for low-level viremia in people living with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy: an 11-year retrospective study.Frontiers in microbiology · 2024Article
- Incomplete immune reconstitution and its predictors in people living with HIV in Wuhan, China.BMC public health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
13 authors at 6 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundGreat achievements have been achieved by free antiretroviral therapy (ART). A rapid and accurate prediction of survival in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) is needed for effective management. We aimed to establish an effective prognostic model to forecast the survival of PLHIV after ART.
methodsThe participants were enrolled from a follow-up cohort over 2003-2019 in Nanjing AIDS Prevention and Control Information System. A nested case-control study was employed with HIV-related death, and a propensity-score matching (PSM) approach was applied in a ratio of 1:4 to allocate the patients. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses were performed based on the training set to determine the risk factors. The discrimination was qualified using the area under the curve (AUC) and concordance index (C-Index). The nomogram was calibrated using the calibration curve. The clinical benefit of prognostic nomogram was assessed by decision curve analysis (DCA).
resultsPredictive factors including CD4 cell count (CD4), body mass index (BMI) and hemoglobin (HB) were determined and incorporated into the nomogram. In the training set, AUC and C-index (95% CI) were 0.831 and 0.798 (0.758, 0.839), respectively. The validation set revealed a good discrimination with an AUC of 0.802 and a C-index (95% CI) of 0.786 (0.681, 0.892). The calibration curve also exhibited a high consistency in the predictive power (especially in the first 3 years after ART initiation) of the nomogram. Moreover, DCA demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically beneficial.
conclusionThe nomogram is effective and accurate in forecasting the survival of PLHIV, and beneficial for medical workers in health administration.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.