ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2022
Inferring the effective start dates of non-pharmaceutical interventions during COVID-19 outbreaks.
Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 8 citations in OpenAlex.
- A scoping review of COVID-19 modelling studies in Belgium 2020-2024: incorporation of behaviour and lessons learned.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026Pooled it
- Article
- Modeling the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 under non-pharmaceutical interventions and testing.Evolution, medicine, and public health · 2022Article
- Dynamics of COVID-19 under social distancing measures are driven by transmission network structure.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Dynamics of COVID-19 under social distancing measures are driven by transmission network structure.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2021Article
- Comparing containment measures among nations by epidemiological effects of COVID-19.National science review · 2020Article
- COVID-19 pandemic-related lockdown: response time is more important than its strictness.EMBO molecular medicine · 2020Article
- Estimating the parameters of susceptible-infected-recovered model of COVID-19 cases in India during lockdown periods.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundDuring Feb-Apr. 2020, many countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures and lockdowns, to control the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Overall, these interventions seem to have reduced the spread of the pandemic. We hypothesized that the official and effective start dates of NPIs can be noticeably different, for example, due to slow adoption by the population, and that these differences can lead to errors in the estimation of the impact of NPIs.
methodsSEIR models were fitted to case data from 12 regions to infer the effective start dates of interventions and compare these with the official dates. The impact of NPIs was estimated from the inferred model parameters.
resultsWe infer mostly late effective start dates of interventions. For example, Italy implemented a lockdown on Mar 11, but we infer the effective start date on Mar 17 (+3.05-2.01 days 95% CI). Moreover, we find that the impact of NPIs can be underestimated if it is assumed they start on their official date.
conclusionsDifferences between the official and effective start of NPIs are likely. Neglecting such differences can lead to underestimation of the impact of NPIs, which could cause decision-makers to escalate interventions and guidelines.
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