Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34982955›Full record

ArticleBiology letters2022

Mammal virus diversity estimates are unstable due to accelerating discovery effort.

Rory Gibb, Gregory F Albery, Nardus Mollentze, Evan A Eskew, Liam Brierley, Sadie J Ryan, Stephanie N Seifert, Colin J Carlson

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Biology letters, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
23citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
8.6field-weighted citation impact, top 2% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

23 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 47 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
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  6. Article
  7. Climate sensitivity is widely but unevenly spread across zoonotic diseases.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
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  9. Review
  10. Pathogens and planetary change.Nature reviews. Biodiversity · 2025
    Article
  11. Towards a 'people and nature' paradigm for biodiversity and infectious disease.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2025
    Review
  12. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 7 institutions in 3 countries.

Rory GibbCentre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0965-1649
Gregory F AlberyDepartment of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC.
Nardus MollentzeMedical Research Council - University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow, UK.
Evan A EskewDepartment of Biology, Pacific Lutheran University, Tacoma, WA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1153-5356
Liam BrierleyDepartment of Health Data Science, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Sadie J RyanDepartment of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4308-6321
Stephanie N SeifertPaul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA.
Colin J CarlsonCenter for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6960-8434
Georgetown University · USLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBMRC University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research · GBPacific Lutheran University · USUniversity of Florida · USUniversity of Liverpool · GBWashington State University · US

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_UU_12014/8Medical Research Council MR/T027355/1Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Host-virus association data underpin research into the distribution and eco-evolutionary correlates of viral diversity and zoonotic risk across host species. However, current knowledge of the wildlife virome is inherently constrained by historical discovery effort, and there are concerns that the reliability of ecological inference from host-virus data may be undermined by taxonomic and geographical sampling biases. Here, we evaluate whether current estimates of host-level viral diversity in wild mammals are stable enough to be considered biologically meaningful, by analysing a comprehensive dataset of discovery dates of 6571 unique mammal host-virus associations between 1930 and 2018. We show that virus discovery rates in mammal hosts are either constant or accelerating, with little evidence of declines towards viral richness asymptotes, even in highly sampled hosts. Consequently, inference of relative viral richness across host species has been unstable over time, particularly in bats, where intensified surveillance since the early 2000s caused a rapid rearrangement of species' ranked viral richness. Our results illustrate that comparative inference of host-level virus diversity across mammals is highly sensitive to even short-term changes in sampling effort. We advise caution to avoid overinterpreting patterns in current data, since it is feasible that an analysis conducted today could draw quite different conclusions than one conducted only a decade ago.

Indexed as

ChiropteraVirusesAnimalsBiological EvolutionMammalsReproducibility of Resultschiropteradiscovery efforthost-virus associationmammalsviruszoonotic

Identifiers

PMID34982955
PMCPMC8727147
OpenAlexW4226026548

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.