Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34972825›Full record

ArticleNature microbiology2022

Improving local prevalence estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infections using a causal debiasing framework.

George Nicholson, Brieuc Lehmann, Tullia Padellini, Koen B Pouwels, Radka Jersakova, James Lomax, Ruairidh E King, Ann-Marie Mallon, Peter J Diggle, Sylvia Richardson and 2 more

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature microbiology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06808789 (Mapping Snakebite Risk in Ghana and Rwanda), which is not on this map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT06808789 not yet recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2025, after this paper: background citation

Mapping Snakebite Risk in Ghana and Rwanda: Using Primary Data Collection and Geostatistical Techniques to Develop an Approach to Risk Estimation for Snakebite

TypeobservationalSponsorLiverpool School of Tropical MedicineRan2025 to 2026Enrolled32,000ConditionsSnakebite, Snake Envenomation
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
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  10. Review
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  15. Article
  16. Interoperability of statistical models in pandemic preparedness: principles and reality.Statistical science : a review journal of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics · 2022
    Article
  17. Bayesian imputation of COVID-19 positive test counts for nowcasting under reporting lag.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics · 2022
    Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Nowcasting the spread of SARS-CoV-2.Nature microbiology · 2022
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

George Nicholson *University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. george.nicholson@stats.ox.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9588-6075
Brieuc Lehmann *University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. b.lehmann@ucl.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7302-4391
Tullia PadelliniThe Alan Turing Institute and Royal Statistical Society Statistical Modelling and Machine Learning Laboratory, London, UK.
Koen B PouwelsHealth Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7097-8950
Radka JersakovaThe Alan Turing Institute and Royal Statistical Society Statistical Modelling and Machine Learning Laboratory, London, UK.
James LomaxThe Alan Turing Institute and Royal Statistical Society Statistical Modelling and Machine Learning Laboratory, London, UK.
Ruairidh E KingThe Alan Turing Institute and Royal Statistical Society Statistical Modelling and Machine Learning Laboratory, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6733-8805
Ann-Marie MallonThe Alan Turing Institute and Royal Statistical Society Statistical Modelling and Machine Learning Laboratory, London, UK.
Peter J DiggleThe Alan Turing Institute and Royal Statistical Society Statistical Modelling and Machine Learning Laboratory, London, UK.
Sylvia RichardsonThe Alan Turing Institute and Royal Statistical Society Statistical Modelling and Machine Learning Laboratory, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1998-492X
Marta BlangiardoThe Alan Turing Institute and Royal Statistical Society Statistical Modelling and Machine Learning Laboratory, London, UK.
Chris HolmesUniversity of Oxford, Oxford, UK. chris.holmes@stats.ox.ac.uk.

Funding

Medical Research Council MC_UP_A390_1107Medical Research Council MC_UU_00002/10Medical Research Council MR/S019669/1Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Global and national surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology is mostly based on targeted schemes focused on testing individuals with symptoms. These tested groups are often unrepresentative of the wider population and exhibit test positivity rates that are biased upwards compared with the true population prevalence. Such data are routinely used to infer infection prevalence and the effective reproduction number, R

Indexed as

Models, StatisticalBasic Reproduction NumberBiasCOVID-19COVID-19 TestingForecastingHumansPrevalenceReproducibility of ResultsSARS-CoV-2Spatio-Temporal AnalysisUnited Kingdom

Identifiers

PMID34972825
PMCPMC8727294

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.