ArticleBMC public health2021
Joint spatio-temporal modelling of adverse pregnancy outcomes sharing common risk factors at sub-county level in Kenya, 2016-2019.
Article in BMC public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 16 citations in OpenAlex.
- A Systematic Review of Joint Spatial and Spatiotemporal Models in Health Research.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Pooled it
- Exploring machine learning algorithms to predict short birth intervals and identify its determinants among reproductive-age women in East Africa.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2025Article
- JSTMapp: A web-based joint spatiotemporal modelling and mapping application for epidemiologists.PloS one · 2025Article
- Associations of Plasmodium and Intestinal Helminth Infections with Maternal Anemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes in Northwest Ethiopia.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2024Article
- Risk factors of adverse birth outcomes among a cohort of pregnant women in Coastal Kenya, 2017-2019.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2024Article
- Spatial heterogeneity of low-birthweight deliveries on the Kenyan coast.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
2 authors at 2 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAdverse pregnancy outcomes jointly account for a high proportion of mortality and morbidity among pregnant women and their infants. Furthermore, the burden attributed to adverse pregnancy outcomes remains high and inadequately characterised due to the intricate interplay of its etiology and shared set of important risk factors. This study sought to quantify and map the underlying risk of multiple adverse pregnancy outcomes in Kenya at sub-county level using a shared component space-time modelling framework.
methodsReported sub-county level adverse pregnancy outcomes count from January 2016 - December 2019 were obtained from the Kenyan District Health Information System. A Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model was used to estimate the joint burden of adverse pregnancy outcomes in space (sub-county) and time (year). To improve the precision of our estimates over time and space, information across the outcomes were combined via the shared and the outcome-specific components using a shared component model with spatio-temporal interactions.
resultsOverall, the total number of adverse outcomes in pregnancy increased by 14.2% (95% UI: 14.0-14.5) from 88,816 cases in 2016 to 101,455 cases in 2019. Between 2016 and 2019, the estimated low birth weight rate and the pre-term birth rate were 4.5 (95% UI: 4.4-4.7) and 2.3 (95% UI: 2.2-2.5) per 100 live births. The stillbirth and neonatal death rates were estimated to be 18.7 (95% UI: 18.0-19.4) and 6.9 (95% UI: 6.4-7.4) per 1000 live births. The magnitude of the spatio-temporal variation attributed to shared risk was high for pre-term births, low birth weight, neonatal deaths, stillbirths and neonatal deaths, respectively. The shared risk patterns were dominant in sub-counties located along the Indian ocean coastline, central and western Kenya.
conclusionsThis study demonstrates the usefulness of a Bayesian joint spatio-temporal shared component model in exploiting specific and shared risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes sub-nationally. By identifying sub-counties with elevated risks and data gaps, our estimates not only assert the need for bolstering maternal health programs in the identified high-risk sub-counties but also provides a baseline against which to assess the progress towards the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals.
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