ArticleJMIR public health and surveillance2022
The Disease and Economic Burdens of Esophageal Cancer in China from 2013 to 2030: Dynamic Cohort Modeling Study.
Article in JMIR public health and surveillance, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 34 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
34 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Profiles and Findings of Population-Based Esophageal Cancer Screening With Endoscopy in China: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Pooled it
- Intervention effects of telenursing based on M-O-A model in empty-nest older adult individuals with chronic diseases: a randomized controlled trial.Frontiers in public health · 2024Trial
- Spatiotemporal co-occurrence patterns and related risk factors of esophageal and lip and oral cavity cancers among older adults across 203 countries and territories: a machine learning-driven systematic analysis.Annals of medicine · 2026Article
- Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) for second-line retreatment in esophageal cancer progressing after first-line immunotherapy: a single-center retrospective cohort study.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Article
- Single-port laparoscopic versus multiple-port laparoscopic combined with thoracoscopic for McKeown esophagectomy: a randomized clinical trial.Surgical endoscopy · 2026Article
- Cost-utility analysis of three PD-1 inhibitors combined with chemotherapy in the first-line treatment of locally advanced or metastatic esophageal squamous carcinoma in China.Health economics review · 2026Article
- Epidemiology of esophageal cancer in Xiamen, China, 2011-2020: trends in incidence, mortality, and survival from a population-based registry study.Cancer causes & control : CCC · 2026Article
- Article
- Trends, patterns, and risk factors of esophageal cancer mortality in China, 2008-2021: A National Mortality Surveillance System data analysis.Journal of advanced research · 2026Article
- Psychological Experiences and Food Avoidance Behavior in Patients Following Esophageal Cancer Surgery: A Qualitative Study.Patient preference and adherence · 2026Article
- Cost-effectiveness of PD-1 inhibitors combined with chemotherapy for first-line treatment of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma in China: a comprehensive analysis.Annals of medicine · 2025Article
- Silencing of PIGU inhibits the progression of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma through the PI3K/AKT signaling pathway.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Impact of preoperative comorbidities on elderly patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma following esophagectomy: a propensity score matching analysis.Discover oncology · 2025Article
- Impact of occupation on survival of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients following esophagectomy: a long-term survival analysis.BMC gastroenterology · 2025Article
- Article
- YY2 Serves as a Novel Prognostic Biomarker Correlated with Immune Microenvironment and Glycolysis in Esophageal Carcinoma.Current genomics · 2025Article
- Could higher hospital spending improve survival in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma? A multicenter retrospective cohort study.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
- Global Burden of Esophageal Cancer and Its Risk Factors: A Systematic Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Patient-Centered Economic Burden of Diabetic Macular Edema: Retrospective Cohort Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- The spatiotemporal associations between esophageal and gastric cancers provide evidence for its joint endoscopic screening in China: a population-based study.BMC medicine · 2024Article
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6 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
backgroundEsophageal cancer (EC) is the sixth leading cause of tumor-related deaths worldwide. Estimates of the EC burden are necessary and could offer evidence-based suggestions for local cancer control.
objectiveThe aim of this study was to predict the disease burden of EC in China through the estimation of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and direct medical expenditure by sex from 2013 to 2030.
methodsA dynamic cohort Markov model was developed to simulate EC prevalence, DALYs, and direct medical expenditure by sex. Input data were collected from the China Statistical Yearbooks, Statistical Report of China Children's Development, World Population Prospects 2019, and published papers. The JoinPoint Regression Program was used to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of DALY rates, whereas the average annual growth rate (AAGR) was applied to analyze the changing direct medical expenditure trend over time.
resultsFrom 2013 to 2030, the predicted EC prevalence is projected to increase from 61.0 to 64.5 per 100,000 people, with annual EC cases increasing by 11.5% (from 835,600 to 931,800). The DALYs will increase by 21.3% (from 30,034,000 to 36,444,000), and the years of life lost (YLL) will account for over 90% of the DALYs. The DALY rates per 100,000 people will increase from 219.2 to 252.3; however, there was a difference between sexes, with an increase from 302.9 to 384.3 in males and a decline from 131.2 to 115.9 in females. The AAPC was 0.8% (95% CI 0.8% to 0.9%), 1.4% (95% CI 1.3% to 1.5%), and -0.7% (95% CI -0.8% to -0.7%) for both sexes, males, and females, respectively. The direct medical expenditure will increase by 128.7% (from US $33.4 to US $76.4 billion), with an AAGR of 5.0%. The direct medical expenditure is 2-3 times higher in males than in females.
conclusionsEC still causes severe disease and economic burdens. YLL are responsible for the majority of DALYs, which highlights an urgent need to establish a beneficial policy to reduce the EC burden.
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