ArticleInformatics in medicine unlocked2022
Forecasting the spread of the third wave of COVID-19 pandemic using time series analysis in Bangladesh.
Article in Informatics in medicine unlocked, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Research on Dynamic Outpatient Respiratory Nosocomial Infection Control Methods Through Multi-Data Prediction.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2025Article
- Forecasting of coronavirus active cases by utilizing logistic growth model and fuzzy time series techniques.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Development of a novel dynamic nosocomial infection risk management method for COVID-19 in outpatient settings.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- An Ensemble Approach for the Prediction of Diabetes Mellitus Using a Soft Voting Classifier with an Explainable AI.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Modeling Global COVID-19 Dissemination Data After the Emergence of Omicron Variant Using Multipronged Approaches.Current microbiology · 2022Article
- Sero-prevalence and risk factors for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 infection in women and children in a rural district of Bangladesh: A cohort study.Journal of global health · 2022Article
- COVID-19 Spatio-Temporal Evolution Using Deep Learning at a European Level.Sensors (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- A Bioinformatics Tool for Predicting Future COVID-19 Waves Based on a Retrospective Analysis of the Second Wave in India: Model Development Study.JMIR bioinformatics and biotechnologyArticle
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
During the third wave of the coronavirus epidemic in Bangladesh, the death and infection rate due to this devastating virus has increased dramatically. The rapid spread of the virus is one of the reasons for this terrible condition. So, identifying the subsequent cases of coronavirus can be a great tool to reduce the mortality and infection rate. In this article, we used the autoregressive integrated moving average-ARIMA(8,1,7) model to estimate the expected daily number of COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh based on the data from April 20, 2021, to July 4, 2021. The ARIMA model showed the best results among the five executed models over Autoregressive Model (AR), Moving Average (MA), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), and Rolling Forest Origin. The findings of this article were used to anticipate a rise in daily cases for the next month in Bangladesh, which can help governments plan policies to prevent the spread of the virus. The forecasting outcome indicated that this new trend(named delta variant) in Bangladesh would continue increasing and might reach 18327 daily new cases within four weeks if strict rules and regulations are not applied to control the spread of COVID-19.
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