ArticleActa biotheoretica2021
Modeling the Waves of Covid-19.
Article in Acta biotheoretica, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Seasonal influence on respiratory tract infection severity including COVID-19 quantified through Markov Chain modeling.CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology · 2023Article
- Evolution of COVID-19 Health Disparities in Arizona.Journal of immigrant and minority health · 2023Article
- Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency.AIMS public health · 2023Review
- Estimation of the Serial Interval and the Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 Outbreak Using Contact Data in Burkina Faso, a Sub-Saharan African Country.Computational and mathematical methods in medicine · 2022Article
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Abstract
The challenges with modeling the spread of Covid-19 are its power-type growth during the middle stages of the waves with the exponents depending on time, and that the saturation of the waves is mainly due to the protective measures and other restriction mechanisms working in the same direction. The two-phase solution we propose for modeling the total number of detected cases of Covid-19 describes the actual curves for many its waves and in many countries almost with the accuracy of physics laws. Bessel functions play the key role in our approach. The differential equations we obtain are of universal type and can be used in behavioral psychology, invasion ecology (transient processes), etc. The initial transmission rate and the intensity of the restriction mechanisms are the key parameters. This theory provides a convincing explanation of the surprising uniformity of the Covid-19 waves in many places, and can be used for forecasting the epidemic spread. For instance, the early projections for the 3rd wave in the USA appeared sufficiently exact. The Delta-waves (2021) in India, South Africa, UK, and the Netherlands are discussed at the end.
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