ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Western Pacific2022
The impact of multiple non-pharmaceutical interventions on controlling COVID-19 outbreak without lockdown in Hong Kong: A modelling study.
Article in The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Impact of infectious density-induced additional screening and treatment saturation on COVID-19: Modeling and cost-effective optimal control.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Influence of Seasonality and Public-Health Interventions on the COVID-19 Pandemic in Northern Europe.Journal of clinical medicine · 2024Article
- The Role of "Hierarchical and Classified Prevention and Control Measures (HCPC)" Strategy for SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Guangzhou: A Modeling Study.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2023Article
- Risk estimation of lifted mask mandates and emerging variants using mathematical model.Heliyon · 2023Article
- A statistical framework for tracking the time-varying superspreading potential of COVID-19 epidemic.Epidemics · 2023Article
- The impact of immunotherapies on COVID-19 case fatality rates during the US vaccination campaign: a multidisciplinary open data analysis using FDA Adverse Event Reporting System and Our World in Data.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2023Article
- Impacts of social distancing, rapid antigen test and vaccination on the Omicron outbreak during large temperature variations in Hong Kong: A modelling study.Journal of infection and public health · 2022Article
- Importation, Local Transmission, and Model Selection in Estimating the Transmissibility of COVID-19: The Outbreak in Shaanxi Province of China as a Case Study.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
- Further Improving Analysis of Date-Based COVID-19 Surveillance Data.American journal of public health · 2022Article
- The impact of contact tracing and testing on controlling COVID-19 outbreak without lockdown in Hong Kong: An observational study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe 'third wave' of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, China was suppressed by non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Although social distancing regulations were quickly strengthened, the outbreak continued to grow, causing increasing delays in tracing and testing. Further regulations were introduced, plus 'targeted testing' services for at-risk groups. Estimating the impact of individual NPIs could provide lessons about how outbreaks can be controlled without radical lockdown. However, the changing delays in confirmation time challenge current modelling methods. We used a novel approach aimed at disentangling and quantifying the effects of individual interventions.
methodsWe incorporated the causes of delays in tracing and testing (i.e. load-efficiency relationship) and the consequences from such delays (i.e. the proportion of un-traced cases and the proportion of traced-cases with confirmation delay) into a deterministic transmission model, which was fitted to the daily number of cases with and without an epi‑link (an indication of being contact-traced). The effect of each NPI was then calculated.
findingsThe model estimated that after earlier relaxation of regulations,
interpretationChanging delay in confirmation has a significant impact on disease transmission and estimation of transmissibility. This leads to a clear recommendation that delay should be monitored and mitigated during outbreaks, and that delay dynamics should be incorporated into models to assess the effects of NPIs.
fundingCity University of Hong Kong and Health and Medical Research Fund.
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