Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34942059›Full record

SynthesisJournal of diabetes investigation2022

Predictive ability of current machine learning algorithms for type 2 diabetes mellitus: A meta-analysis.

Satoru Kodama, Kazuya Fujihara, Chika Horikawa, Masaru Kitazawa, Midori Iwanaga, Kiminori Kato, Kenichi Watanabe, Yoshimi Nakagawa, Takashi Matsuzaka, Hitoshi Shimano and 1 more

Abstract readMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Journal of diabetes investigation, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Pooled it
  5. Review
  6. Article
  7. Observational
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Machine Learning Models for Data-Driven Prediction of Diabetes by Lifestyle Type.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Article
  12. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Satoru KodamaDepartment of Prevention of Noncommunicable Diseases and Promotion of Health Checkup, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9521-7274
Kazuya FujiharaDepartment of Hematology, Endocrinology and Metabolism, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata, Japan.
Chika HorikawaDepartment of Health and Nutrition, Faculty of Human Life Studies, University of Niigata Prefecture, Niigata, Japan.
Masaru KitazawaDepartment of Prevention of Noncommunicable Diseases and Promotion of Health Checkup, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata, Japan.
Midori IwanagaDepartment of Prevention of Noncommunicable Diseases and Promotion of Health Checkup, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata, Japan.
Kiminori KatoDepartment of Prevention of Noncommunicable Diseases and Promotion of Health Checkup, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata, Japan.
Kenichi WatanabeDepartment of Prevention of Noncommunicable Diseases and Promotion of Health Checkup, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata, Japan.
Yoshimi NakagawaDivision of Complex Biosystem Research, Institute of Natural Medicine, Toyama University, Toyama, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8710-5232
Takashi MatsuzakaDepartment of Internal Medicine (Endocrinology and Metabolism), Faculty of Medicine, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5898-3463
Hitoshi ShimanoDepartment of Internal Medicine (Endocrinology and Metabolism), Faculty of Medicine, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
Hirohito SoneDepartment of Hematology, Endocrinology and Metabolism, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Niigata, Japan.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1263-2817

Funding

the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) 19K12840
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

AIMS/

introductionRecently, an increasing number of cohort studies have suggested using machine learning (ML) to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, its predictive ability remains inconclusive. This meta-analysis evaluated the current ability of ML algorithms for predicting incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. MATERIALS AND

methodsWe systematically searched longitudinal studies published from 1 January 1950 to 17 May 2020 using MEDLINE and EMBASE. Included studies had to compare ML's classification with the actual incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, and present data on the number of true positives, false positives, true negatives and false negatives. The dataset for these four values was pooled with a hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic and a bivariate random effects model.

resultsThere were 12 eligible studies. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio were 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.90), 0.82 [95% CI 0.74-0.88], 4.55 [95% CI 3.07-6.75] and 0.23 [95% CI 0.13-0.42], respectively. The area under the summarized receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.88 (95% CI 0.85-0.91).

conclusionsCurrent ML algorithms have sufficient ability to help clinicians determine whether individuals will develop type 2 diabetes mellitus in the future. However, persons should be cautious before changing their attitude toward future diabetes risk after learning the result of the diabetes prediction test using ML algorithms.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2AlgorithmsForecastingHumansMachine LearningROC CurveMachine learningMeta-analysisType 2 diabetes mellitus

Identifiers

PMID34942059
PMCPMC9077721

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.