Association of Incarceration With Mortality by Race From a National Longitudinal Cohort Study.

Importance: The association between incarceration and long-term mortality risk is unknown and may contribute to racial disparities in overall life expectancy. Objective: To determine whether incarceration in the US is associated with an increase in mortality risk and whether this association is different for Black compared with non-Black populations. Design, Setting, and Participants: This generational retrospective cohort study used data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, a nationally representative cohort of noninstitutionalized youths aged 15 to 22 years, from January 1 to December 31, 1979, with follow-up through December 31, 2018. A total of 7974 non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic non-Black participants were included. Statistical analysis was performed from October 26, 2019, to August 31, 2021. Exposures: Time-varying exposure of having experienced incarceration during follow-up. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was time to death. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs, adjusted for baseline sociodemographic, economic, and behavioral risk factors. Models were evaluated for the full cohort and stratified by race. Results: Of the 7974 individuals included in our sample, 4023 (50.5%) were male, and 2992 (37.5%) identified as Black (median age, 18 [IQR, 17-20] years). During a median follow-up of 35 years (IQR, 33-37 years), 478 participants were incarcerated and 818 died. Unadjusted exposure to at least 1 incarceration between 22 and 50 years of age was 11.5% (95% CI, 10.4%-12.7%) for Black participants compared with 2.5% (95% CI, 2.1%-2.9%) for non-Black participants. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model with the full cohort, time-varying exposure to incarceration was associated with an increased mortality rate (adjusted HR [aHR], 1.35; 95% CI, 0.97-1.88), a result that was not statistically significant. In the models stratified by race, incarceration was significantly associated with increased mortality among Black participants (aHR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.18-2.31) but not among non-Black participants (aHR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.68-2.03). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study with 4 decades of follow-up, incarceration was associated with a higher mortality rate among Black participants but not among non-Black participants. These findings suggest that incarceration, which was prevalent and unevenly distributed, may have contributed to the lower life expectancy of the non-Hispanic Black population in the US.