Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34939832›Full record

ArticleAnnals of the Royal College of Surgeons of England2022

Projections for primary hip and knee replacement surgery up to the year 2060: an analysis based on data from The National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man.

G S Matharu, D J Culliford, A W Blom, A Judge

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Annals of the Royal College of Surgeons of England, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT07041528 (How Do Patients and Health Care Professionals Perceive De-implementation of Routine Follow-ups After Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty? Protocol for a Nested Qualitative Study Within a Hybrid De-implementation Trial), which is not on this map. Cited by 90 papers, 6 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
90citing papers in PubMed, 6 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT07041528 not yet recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2026, after this paper: background citation

How Do Patients and Health Care Professionals Perceive De-implementation of Routine Follow-ups After Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty? Protocol for a Nested Qualitative Study Within a Hybrid De-implementation Trial

TypeobservationalSponsorTergooi Medical CenterRan2026 to 2028Enrolled90ConditionsHip Arthroplasty, Total, Knee Arthroplasty, Total
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

90 citing papers in PubMed, 6 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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30 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

G S MatharuBristol Medical School, University of Bristol, UK.
D J CullifordUniversity of Southampton, UK.
A W BlomBristol Medical School, University of Bristol, UK.
A JudgeBristol Medical School, University of Bristol, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionWe estimated the number of primary total hip and knee replacements (THR and TKR) that will need to be performed up to the year 2060.

methodsWe used data from The National Joint Registry for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man on the volume of primary THRs (

resultsBy 2060, THR and TKR volume would increase from 2018 levels by an estimated 37.7% (

conclusionBy 2060 demand for hip and knee joint replacement is estimated to increase by almost 40%. Demand will be greatest in older patients (70+ years), which will have significant implications for the health service requiring forward planning given that morbidity and resource use is higher in this population. These issues, coupled with two waves of COVID-19, will impact the ability of health services to deliver timely joint replacement to many patients for a number of years, requiring urgent planning.

Indexed as

Arthroplasty, Replacement, HipCOVID-19AgedAged, 80 and overEnglandFemaleHumansMaleNorthern IrelandRegistriesWalesDemandFuture numbersTotal hip replacementTotal knee replacement

Identifiers

PMID34939832
PMCPMC9157920

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.