ArticlePsychological medicine2023
Rising early warning signals in affect associated with future changes in depression: a dynamical systems approach.
Article in Psychological medicine, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 26 citations in OpenAlex.
- Daily Negative Affect and Reaction Time Inconsistency in Emerging Adults: Ecological Momentary Assessment Study.JMIR mHealth and uHealth · 2026Article
- Article
- Development and Validation of a Cross-Device Platform for Anhedonia Trend Visualization by Using Ecological Momentary Assessment and Moving Averages (Part I): Protocol for a Methodological Pilot Study.JMIR research protocols · 2025Article
- A Phenomenological Reappraisal of Dynamical Systems in Psychopathology.Psychopathology · 2025Review
- Day-to-day variability in sleep and activity predict the onset of a hypomanic episode in patients with bipolar disorder.Journal of affective disorders · 2025Observational
- Examining the research methods of early warning signals in clinical psychology through a theoretical lens.BMC psychiatry · 2025Review
- New diagnosis in psychiatry: beyond heuristics.Psychological medicine · 2025Review
- Article
- A Proof of Concept Study on Individual Trends in Suicidal Ideation: An Ecological Momentary Assessment Study of 5 Patients Over Three Months.Journal for person-oriented research · 2023Article
- Anticipating manic and depressive transitions in patients with bipolar disorder using early warning signals.International journal of bipolar disorders · 2022Article
- A process-based approach to cognitive behavioral therapy: A theory-based case illustration.Frontiers in psychology · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundPredicting future states of psychopathology such as depressive episodes has been a hallmark initiative in mental health research. Dynamical systems theory has proposed that rises in certain 'early warning signals' (EWSs) in time-series data (e.g. auto-correlation, temporal variance, network connectivity) may precede impending changes in disorder severity. The current study investigates whether
methodsThirty-one patients with MDD completed the study, which consisted of daily smartphone-delivered surveys over 8 weeks. Daily positive and negative affect were collected for the time-series analyses. A rolling window approach was used to determine whether rises in auto-correlation of total affect, temporal standard deviation of total affect, and overall network connectivity in individual affect items were predictive of increases in depression symptoms.
resultsResults suggested that rises in auto-correlation were significantly associated with worsening in depression symptoms (
conclusionsThis study more rigorously examines whether rises in EWSs were associated with future depression symptoms in a larger group of patients with MDD. Results indicated that rises in auto-correlation were the only EWS that was associated with worsening future changes in depression.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.