Observational studyTranslational psychiatry2021
Predictors of diagnostic transition from major depressive disorder to bipolar disorder: a retrospective observational network study.
Observational study in Translational psychiatry, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 48 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictors of conversion from major depressive disorder to bipolar disorder: A population-based PADRIS-PRESTO cohort study in Catalonia.European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists · 2026Article
- DrugUtilisation: An R Package to Support Drug Utilisation Research Using the OMOP Common Data Model.Pharmacoepidemiology and drug safety · 2026Article
- Opportunities and Challenges in Using National EHR Networks for AI in Learning Health Systems.Learning health systems · 2026Article
- Development and external validation of a diagnostic model for differentiating major depressive disorder from bipolar disorder.BMC psychiatry · 2026Article
- The relevance of phenotypic definition in treatment resistant forms of major depressive disorder: a narrative review.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2026Review
- Transdiagnostic prevention in youth mental health, Part II: interventions.Neuropsychopharmacology : official publication of the American College of Neuropsychopharmacology · 2026Review
- Manic switching from depression is affected by adult hippocampal neurogenesis.Animal cells and systems · 2026Article
- Genomic architecture of bipolar disorder in Japan: Insights from genomic structural equation modeling.Psychiatry and clinical neurosciences · 2025Article
- Common and disease-specific patterns of functional connectivity and topology alterations across unipolar and bipolar disorder during depressive episodes: a transdiagnostic study.Translational psychiatry · 2025Article
- Who transitions to bipolar disorder? A comparison of major depressive disorder, anxiety, and ADHD.Journal of affective disorders · 2025Article
- Predicting Diagnostic Conversion From Major Depressive Disorder to Bipolar Disorder: An EHR Based Study From Colombia.Bipolar disorders · 2025Article
- Predicting Conversion From Unipolar Depression to Bipolar Disorder and Schizophrenia: A 10-Year Retrospective Cohort Study on 12,182 Inpatients.Depression and anxiety · 2025Article
- Electroencephalography-based endogenous phenotype of diagnostic transition from major depressive disorder to bipolar disorder.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- How to Solve Clinical Challenges in Mood Disorders; Machine Learning Approaches Using Electrophysiological Markers.Clinical psychopharmacology and neuroscience : the official scientific journal of the Korean College of Neuropsychopharmacology · 2024Review
- Towards global model generalizability: independent cross-site feature evaluation for patient-level risk prediction models using the OHDSI network.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2024Article
- Comparative Analysis of Personality Traits in Major Depressive Disorder and Bipolar Disorder: Impact, Differences, and Associations with Symptoms.Neuropsychiatric disease and treatment · 2024Article
- Exploring the Relationship between Mood Disorders and Coexisting Health Conditions: The Focus on Nutraceuticals.Brain sciences · 2023Review
- Privacy-Preserving Federated Model Predicting Bipolar Transition in Patients With Depression: Prediction Model Development Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2023Article
- Establishment of an International Evidence Sharing Network Through Common Data Model for Cardiovascular Research.Korean circulation journal · 2022Review
- Blueprint for harmonising unstandardised disease registries to allow federated data analysis: prepare for the future.ERJ open research · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
18 authors at 10 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Many patients with bipolar disorder (BD) are initially misdiagnosed with major depressive disorder (MDD) and are treated with antidepressants, whose potential iatrogenic effects are widely discussed. It is unknown whether MDD is a comorbidity of BD or its earlier stage, and no consensus exists on individual conversion predictors, delaying BD's timely recognition and treatment. We aimed to build a predictive model of MDD to BD conversion and to validate it across a multi-national network of patient databases using the standardization afforded by the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) common data model. Five "training" US databases were retrospectively analyzed: IBM MarketScan CCAE, MDCR, MDCD, Optum EHR, and Optum Claims. Cyclops regularized logistic regression models were developed on one-year MDD-BD conversion with all standard covariates from the HADES PatientLevelPrediction package. Time-to-conversion Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed up to a decade after MDD, stratified by model-estimated risk. External validation of the final prediction model was performed across 9 patient record databases within the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) network internationally. The model's area under the curve (AUC) varied 0.633-0.745 (µ = 0.689) across the five US training databases. Nine variables predicted one-year MDD-BD transition. Factors that increased risk were: younger age, severe depression, psychosis, anxiety, substance misuse, self-harm thoughts/actions, and prior mental disorder. AUCs of the validation datasets ranged 0.570-0.785 (µ = 0.664). An assessment algorithm was built for MDD to BD conversion that allows distinguishing as much as 100-fold risk differences among patients and validates well across multiple international data sources.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.