Utility of Machine Learning Approach with Neuropsychological Tests in Predicting Functional Impairment of Alzheimer's Disease.

backgroundIn assessing the levels of clinical impairment in dementia, a summary index of neuropsychological batteries has been widely used in describing the overall functional status.

objectiveIt remains unexamined how complex patterns of the test performances can be utilized to have specific predictive meaning when the machine learning approach is applied.

methodsIn this study, the neuropsychological battery (CERAD-K) and assessment of functioning level (Clinical Dementia Rating scale and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living) were administered to 2,642 older adults with no impairment (n = 285), mild cognitive impairment (n = 1,057), and Alzheimer's disease (n = 1,300). Predictive accuracy on functional impairment level with the linear models of the single total score or multiple subtest scores (Model 1, 2) and support vector regression with low or high complexity (Model 3, 4) were compared across different sample sizes.

resultsThe linear models (Model 1, 2) showed superior performance with relatively smaller sample size, while nonlinear models with low and high complexity (Model 3, 4) showed an improved accuracy with a larger dataset. Unlike linear models, the nonlinear models showed a gradual increase in the predictive accuracy with a larger sample size (n > 500), especially when the model training is allowed to exploit complex patterns of the dataset.

conclusionOur finding suggests that nonlinear models can predict levels of functional impairment with a sufficient dataset. The summary index of the neuropsychological battery can be augmented for specific purposes, especially in estimating the functional status of dementia.