Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34921515›Full record

Trial reportJournal of the International AIDS Society2021

The effect of tracer contact on return to care among adult, "lost to follow-up" patients living with HIV in Zambia: an instrumental variable analysis.

Laura K Beres, Aaloke Mody, Kombatende Sikombe, Lauren Hersch Nicholas, Sheree Schwartz, Ingrid Eshun-Wilson, Paul Somwe, Sandra Simbeza, Jake M Pry, Paul Kaumba and 6 more

Open access · goldAbstract readRandomized Controlled Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
0.5field-weighted citation impact, top 33% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 14 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Laura K BeresDepartment of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Aaloke ModyDepartment of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri, USA.
Kombatende SikombeCentre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.
Lauren Hersch NicholasDepartment of Health Policy and Management, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Sheree SchwartzDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Ingrid Eshun-WilsonDepartment of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri, USA.
Paul SomweCentre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.
Sandra SimbezaCentre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.
Jake M PryDepartment of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri, USA.
Paul KaumbaCentre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.
John McGreadyDepartment of Biostatistics, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Charles B HolmesCenter for Innovation in Global Health, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA.
Carolyn Bolton-MooreCentre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.
Izukanji SikazweCentre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia.
Julie A DenisonDepartment of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Elvin H GengDepartment of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, Missouri, USA.
Centre for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia · ZMJohns Hopkins University · USWashington University in St. Louis · USGeorgetown University · US

Funding

Vaccine Response and Immunotherapeutics SWGP30AI094189 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI Bryan Lau · 2012 to 2026
$67.0M
Washington University Institute of Clinical and Translational Sciences (KL2) KL2TR002346 · NCATS · WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY · PI Dominic N Reeds · 2017 to 2026
$14.0M
Patterns and Factors Influencing Return to Care among HIV Patients in ZambiaF31MH109378 · NIMH · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI BERES, LAURA · 2016 to 2019
$157k
NCATS NIH HHS KL2 TR002346NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI094189NIMH NIH HHS F31 MH109378
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionTracing patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) from HIV care is widely practiced, yet we have little knowledge of its causal effect on care engagement. In a prospective, Zambian cohort, we examined the effect of tracing on return to care within 2 years of LTFU.

methodsWe traced a stratified, random sample of LTFU patients who had received HIV care between August 2013 and July 2015. LTFU was defined as a gap of >90 days from last scheduled appointment in the routine electronic medical record. Extracting 2 years of follow-up visit data through 2017, we identified patients who returned. Using random selection for tracing as an instrumental variable (IV), we used conditional two-stage least squares regression to estimate the local average treatment effect of tracer contact on return. We examined the observational association between tracer contact and return among patient sub-groups self-confirmed as disengaged from care.

resultsOf the 24,164 LTFU patients enumerated, 4380 were randomly selected for tracing and 1158 were contacted by a tracer within a median of 14.8 months post-loss. IV analysis found that patients contacted by a tracer because they were randomized to tracing were no more likely to return than those not contacted (adjusted risk difference [aRD]: 3%, 95% CI: -2%, 8%, p = 0.23). Observational data showed that among contacted, disengaged patients, the rate of return was higher in the week following tracer contact (IR 5.74, 95% CI: 3.78-8.71) than in the 2 weeks to 1-month post-contact (IR 2.28, 95% CI: 1.40-3.72). There was a greater effect of tracing among patients lost for >6 months compared to those contacted within 3 months of loss.

conclusionsOverall, tracer contact did not causally increase LTFU patient return to HIV care, demonstrating the limited impact of tracing in this program, where contact occurred months after patients were LTFU. However, observational data suggest that tracing may speed return among some LTFU patients genuinely out-of-care. Further studies may improve tracing effectiveness by examining the mechanisms underlying the impact of tracing on return to care, the effect of tracing at different times-since-loss and using more accurate identification of patients who are truly disengaged to target tracing.

Indexed as

HIV InfectionsLost to Follow-UpCohort StudiesHumansProspective StudiesZambiacausalityHIVinstrumental variablelost to follow-upretention in caretracing

Identifiers

PMID34921515
PMCPMC8683971
OpenAlexW4200100082

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.