ArticleCancer medicine2022
Simulation modeling of breast cancer endocrine therapy duration by patient and tumor characteristics.
Article in Cancer medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 4 citations in OpenAlex.
- Under-reporting of Validation Efforts for Health Economic Models Persists Despite the Availability of Validation Tools: A Systematic Review.PharmacoEconomics · 2025Pooled it
- Survival analysis of metachronous bilateral ectopic breast cancer utilizing the SEER database and the pioneering construction of a nomogram model.European journal of medical research · 2025Article
- To Radiate or Not to Radiate After Breast-Conserving Surgery-Endocrine Therapy is the Question.Annals of surgical oncology · 2023Article
- Simulation modeling of breast cancer endocrine therapy duration by patient and tumor characteristics.Cancer medicine · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundExtending endocrine therapy from 5 to 10 years is recommended for women with invasive estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers. We evaluated the benefits and harms of the five additional years of therapy.
methodsAn established Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Network (CISNET) model used a lifetime horizon with national and clinical trial data on treatment efficacy and adverse events and other-cause mortality among multiple birth cohorts of U.S. women ages 25-79 newly diagnosed with ER+, non-metastatic breast cancer. We assumed 100% use of therapy. Outcomes included life years (LYs), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and breast cancer mortality. Results were discounted at 3%. Sensitivity analyses tested a 15-year time horizon and alternative assumptions.
resultsExtending tamoxifen therapy duration among women ages 25-49 reduced the lifetime probability of breast cancer death from 11.9% to 9.3% (absolute difference 2.6%). This translates to a gain of 0.77 LYs (281 days)/woman (undiscounted). Adverse events reduce this gain to 0.44 QALYs and after discounting, gains are 0.20 QALYs (73 days)/woman. Extended aromatase inhibitor therapy in women 50-79 had small absolute benefits and gains were offset by adverse events (loss of 0.06 discounted QALYs). There were greater gains with extended endocrine therapy for women with node-positive versus negative cancers, but only women ages 25-49 and 50-59 had a net QALY gain. All gains were reduced with less than 100% treatment completion.
conclusionThe extension of endocrine therapy from 5 to 10 years modestly improved lifetime breast cancer outcomes, but in some women, treatment-related adverse events may outweigh benefits.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.