ArticleThe Lancet regional health. Europe2021
Modelling the impact of increased alcohol taxation on alcohol-attributable cancers in the WHO European Region.
Article in The Lancet regional health. Europe, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Geographic inequalities and gender-specific trends in oropharyngeal cancer mortality in Spain.Medicina oral, patologia oral y cirugia bucal · 2026Article
- Public health impacts of increasing the minimum unit price for alcohol in Scotland: A model-based appraisal.PLoS medicine · 2026Article
- Impact of lifestyle and mental health on colorectal adenomas in China: a prospective cross-sectional survey.Frontiers in medicine · 2025Article
- How much do Europeans know about the link between alcohol use and cancer? Results from an online survey in 14 countries.BMC research notes · 2024Article
- Tax and noncommunicable diseases attributable to tobacco and alcohol consumption in 5 Sub-Saharan African countries.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Estimated projection of incidence and mortality of alcohol-related liver disease in China from 2022 to 2040: a modeling study.BMC medicine · 2023Article
- Lower Strength Alcohol Products-A Realist Review-Based Road Map for European Policy Making.Nutrients · 2022Review
- [Potential impact of increased alcohol taxes on the alcohol-attributable burden of disease in Germany: a modelling study].Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2022Article
- Alcohol-related harms and the certainty of deaths and taxes.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2022Article
- Cross-sectional study on the characteristics of unrecorded alcohol consumption in nine newly independent states between 2013 and 2017.BMJ open · 2021Article
- Sobering evidence that higher taxes will mitigate alcohol-related cancer harms.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2021Article
- Alcohol and health in Central and Eastern European Union countries -Journal of health inequalities · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundReducing the alcohol-attributable cancer burden in the WHO European Region is a public health priority. This study aims to estimate the number of potentially avoidable cancers in countries of the WHO European Region in 2019 for three scenarios in which current excise duties on alcoholic beverages were increased by 20%, 50%, or 100%.
methodsMean prices and excise duties for beer, wine, and spirits in the Member States of the WHO European Region in 2020 were used as the baseline scenario. We assumed that increases in excise duties (20%, 50%, and 100%) were fully incorporated into the consumer price. Beverage-specific price elasticities of demand, with lower elasticities for heavy drinkers, were obtained from a meta-analysis. Model estimates were applied to alcohol exposure data for 2009 and cancer incidence and mortality rates for 2019, assuming a 10-year lag time between alcohol intake and cancer development and mortality.
findingsOf 180,887 (95% Confidence interval [CI]: 160,595-201,705) new alcohol-attributable cancer cases and 85,130 (95% CI: 74,920-95,523) deaths in the WHO European Region in 2019, 5·9% (95% CI: 5·6-6·4) and 5·7% (95% CI: 5·4-6·1), respectively, could have been avoided by increasing excise duties by 100%. According to our model, alcohol-attributable female breast cancer and colorectal cancer contributed most to the avoidable cases and deaths.
interpretationDoubling current alcohol excise duties could avoid just under 6% (or 10,700 cases and 4,850 deaths) of new alcohol-attributable cancers within the WHO European Region, particularly in Member States of the European Union where excise duties are in many cases very low.
fundingNone.
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