ArticleScientific reports2021
Superspreading quantified from bursty epidemic trajectories.
Article in Scientific reports, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Superspreading, overdispersion and their implications in the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature.BMC public health · 2023Pooled it
- Time-series modeling of epidemics in complex populations: Detecting changes in incidence volatility over time.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Dissecting transmission to understand parasite evolution.PLoS pathogens · 2025Review
- High-resolution epidemiological landscape from ~290,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Denmark.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Article
- The counterintuitive implications of superspreading diseases.Nature communications · 2023Article
- The interplay of social constraints and individual variation in risk tolerance in the emergence of superspreaders.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Reproductive variance can drive behavioral dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The quantification of spreading heterogeneity in the COVID-19 epidemic is crucial as it affects the choice of efficient mitigating strategies irrespective of whether its origin is biological or social. We present a method to deduce temporal and individual variations in the basic reproduction number directly from epidemic trajectories at a community level. Using epidemic data from the 98 districts in Denmark we estimate an overdispersion factor k for COVID-19 to be about 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.08-0.18), implying that 10 % of the infected cause between 70 % and 87 % of all infections.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.