ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2021
Effectiveness of mRNA-1273 against delta, mu, and other emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2: test negative case-control study.
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 156 papers, 11 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
156 citing papers in PubMed, 11 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 216 citations in OpenAlex.
- Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe outcomes in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of European studies published up to 22 January 2024.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2025Pooled it
- Prior infections and effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in test-negative studies: a systematic review and meta-analysis.American journal of epidemiology · 2024Pooled it
- Evaluation of Waning of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine-Induced Immunity: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.JAMA network open · 2023Pooled it
- Long-term effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against infections, hospitalisations, and mortality in adults: findings from a rapid living systematic evidence synthesis and meta-analysis up to December, 2022.The Lancet. Respiratory medicine · 2023Pooled it
- Vaccine efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 for Pfizer BioNTech, Moderna, and AstraZeneca vaccines: a systematic review.Frontiers in public health · 2023Pooled it
- Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in real-world: a literature review and meta-analysis.Emerging microbes & infections · 2022Pooled it
- Effectiveness of heterologous and homologous covid-19 vaccine regimens: living systematic review with network meta-analysis.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2022Pooled it
- Immunogenicity and safety of heterologous versus homologous prime-boost schedules with an adenoviral vectored and mRNA COVID-19 vaccine: a systematic review.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Pooled it
- Duration of effectiveness of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease: results of a systematic review and meta-regression.Lancet (London, England) · 2022Pooled it
- Humoral and Cellular Immune Responses of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-Cov-2 Omicron variant: a systemic review.International journal of biological sciences · 2022Pooled it
- Real-Word Effectiveness of Global COVID-19 Vaccines Against SARS-CoV-2 Variants: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Frontiers in medicine · 2022Pooled it
- Safety and Immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Receptor-Binding Domain and N-Terminal Domain mRNA Vaccine.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Trial
- Shared clinical and immunologic features of mRNA vaccines: preliminary results from a comparative clinical study.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Trial
- Safety, Tolerability, and Immunogenicity of an mRNA-Based Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccine in Healthy Young Adults in a Phase 1 Clinical Trial.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2024Trial
- Long-term safety and effectiveness of mRNA-1273 vaccine in adults: COVE trial open-label and booster phases.Nature communications · 2024Trial
- Interim analysis of a phase 1 randomized clinical trial on the safety and immunogenicity of the mRNA-1283 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in adults.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2023Trial
- Stochastic interventional approach to assessing immune correlates of protection: Application to the COVE messenger RNA-1273 vaccine trial.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2023Trial
- Safety and immunogenicity of a phase 1/2 randomized clinical trial of a quadrivalent, mRNA-based seasonal influenza vaccine (mRNA-1010) in healthy adults: interim analysis.Nature communications · 2023Trial
- Gam-COVID-Vac, EpiVacCorona, and CoviVac effectiveness against lung injury during Delta and Omicron variant surges in St. Petersburg, Russia: a test-negative case-control study.Respiratory research · 2022Trial
- Efficacy and Safety of the RBD-Dimer-Based Covid-19 Vaccine ZF2001 in Adults.The New England journal of medicine · 2022Trial
96 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
15 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesTo evaluate the effectiveness of the mRNA-1273 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 variants and assess its effectiveness against the delta variant by time since vaccination.
designTest negative case-control study.
settingKaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), an integrated healthcare system.
participantsAdult KPSC members with a SARS-CoV-2 positive test sent for whole genome sequencing or a negative test from 1 March 2021 to 27 July 2021.
interventionsTwo dose or one dose vaccination with mRNA-1273 (Moderna covid-19 vaccine) ≥14 days before specimen collection versus no covid-19 vaccination.
main outcome measuresOutcomes included infection with SARS-CoV-2 and hospital admission with covid-19. In pre-specified analyses for each variant type, test positive cases were matched 1:5 to test negative controls on age, sex, race/ethnicity, and specimen collection date. Conditional logistic regression was used to compare odds of vaccination among cases versus controls, with adjustment for confounders. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated as (1-odds ratio)×100%.
resultsThe study included 8153 cases and their matched controls. Two dose vaccine effectiveness was 86.7% (95% confidence interval 84.3% to 88.7%) against infection with the delta variant, 98.4% (96.9% to 99.1%) against alpha, 90.4% (73.9% to 96.5%) against mu, 96-98% against other identified variants, and 79.9% (76.9% to 82.5%) against unidentified variants (that is, specimens that failed sequencing). Vaccine effectiveness against hospital admission with the delta variant was 97.5% (92.7% to 99.2%). Vaccine effectiveness against infection with the delta variant declined from 94.1% (90.5% to 96.3%) 14-60 days after vaccination to 80.0% (70.2% to 86.6%) 151-180 days after vaccination. Waning was less pronounced for non-delta variants. Vaccine effectiveness against delta infection was lower among people aged ≥65 years (75.2%, 59.6% to 84.8%) than those aged 18-64 years (87.9%, 85.5% to 89.9%). One dose vaccine effectiveness was 77.0% (60.7% to 86.5%) against infection with delta.
conclusionsTwo doses of mRNA-1273 were highly effective against all SARS-CoV-2 variants, especially against hospital admission with covid-19. However, vaccine effectiveness against infection with the delta variant moderately declined with increasing time since vaccination.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.