ArticleJournal of public economic theory2021
Optimal lockdowns for COVID-19 pandemics: Analyzing the efficiency of sanitary policies in Europe.
Article in Journal of public economic theory, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Clustering-based methodology for comparing multi-characteristic epidemiological dynamics with application to COVID-19 epidemiology in Europe.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- The Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Mortality: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis.AJPM focus · 2023Review
- The complex interplay between COVID-19 and economic activity.Mathematical social sciences · 2022Article
- Winners and losers of the COVID-19 pandemic: An excess profits tax proposal.Journal of public economic theory · 2022Article
- Ambiguity in a pandemic recession, asset prices, and lockdown policy.Journal of public economic theory · 2022Article
- Vaccine and inclusion.Journal of public economic theory · 2022Article
- A theory of voluntary testing and self-isolation in an ongoing pandemic.Journal of public economic theory · 2022Article
- Optimal lockdowns.Public choice · 2022Article
- Optimal lockdowns for COVID-19 pandemics: Analyzing the efficiency of sanitary policies in Europe.Journal of public economic theory · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Two main nonpharmaceutical policy strategies have been used in Europe in response to the COVID-19 epidemic: one aimed at natural herd immunity and the other at avoiding saturation of hospital capacity by crushing the curve. The two strategies lead to different results in terms of the number of lives saved on the one hand and production loss on the other hand. Using a susceptible-infected-recovered-dead model, we investigate and compare these two strategies. As the results are sensitive to the initial reproduction number, we estimate the latter for 10 European countries for each wave from January 2020 till March 2021 using a double sigmoid statistical model and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker data set. Our results show that Denmark, which opted for crushing the curve, managed to minimize both economic and human losses. Natural herd immunity, sought by Sweden and the Netherlands does not appear to have been a particularly effective strategy, especially for Sweden, both in economic terms and in terms of lives saved. The results are more mixed for other countries, but with no evident trade-off between deaths and production losses.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.