ArticleNature communications2021
The effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Italy and perspectives for living with the virus.
Article in Nature communications, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- The impact of China's non-pharmaceutical interventions on economic growth during COVID-19: a provincial-level panel analysis.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Social inequalities in vaccine coverage and their effects on epidemic spreading.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- A Physics-Informed Neural Network approach for compartmental epidemiological models.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- The Inverted U-Shaped Relationship Between Socio-Economic Status and Infections During the COVID-19 Pandemic.GeoHealth · 2024Article
- Improvements in mental health associated with increased electronic communication and deterioration in physical health in adults aged 50+ during the COVID-19 pandemic.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Covid-19 Occupational Risk Incidence and Working Sectors Involved During the Pandemic in Italy.Safety and health at work · 2023Article
- Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Article
- Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infections and associated changes in COVID-19 severity and fatality.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2023Article
- Community factors and excess mortality in the COVID-19 pandemic in England, Italy and Sweden.European journal of public health · 2023Article
- Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Impacts of social distancing policy and vaccination during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Korea.Journal of economic dynamics & control · 2023Article
- The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality in Pavia, Northern Italy: Updated Estimates for the Year 2021.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Article
- Priority age targets for COVID-19 vaccination in Ethiopia under limited vaccine supply.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Treating SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infection by molnupiravir for pandemic mitigation and living with the virus: a mathematical modeling study.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Time to Lift up COVID-19 Restrictions? Public Support towards Living with the Virus Policy and Associated Factors among Hong Kong General Public.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Prevalence of long COVID decreases for increasing COVID-19 vaccine uptake.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Proactive vs. reactive country responses to the COVID-19 pandemic shock.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
15 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
COVID-19 vaccination is allowing a progressive release of restrictions worldwide. Using a mathematical model, we assess the impact of vaccination in Italy since December 27, 2020 and evaluate prospects for societal reopening after emergence of the Delta variant. We estimate that by June 30, 2021, COVID-19 vaccination allowed the resumption of about half of pre-pandemic social contacts. In absence of vaccination, the same number of cases is obtained by resuming only about one third of pre-pandemic contacts, with about 12,100 (95% CI: 6,600-21,000) extra deaths (+27%; 95% CI: 15-47%). Vaccination offset the effect of the Delta variant in summer 2021. The future epidemic trend is surrounded by substantial uncertainty. Should a pediatric vaccine (for ages 5 and older) be licensed and a coverage >90% be achieved in all age classes, a return to pre-pandemic society could be envisioned. Increasing vaccination coverage will allow further reopening even in absence of a pediatric vaccine.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.