ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2021
Deciphering early-warning signals of SARS-CoV-2 elimination and resurgence from limited data at multiple scales.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
What it found
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed.
- Spatial and social determinants of the 1857 yellow fever epidemic in Lisbon.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- TheCommunications physics · 2026Article
- Robust uncertainty quantification in popular estimators of the instantaneous reproduction number.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- A Primer on Inference and Prediction With Epidemic Renewal Models and Sequential Monte Carlo.Statistics in medicine · 2025Article
- Improved estimation of the effective reproduction number with heterogeneous transmission rates and reporting delays.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Optimizing the timing of an end-of-outbreak declaration: Ebola virus disease in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Science advances · 2024Article
- Is SARS-CoV-2 elimination or mitigation best? Regional and disease characteristics determine the recommended strategy.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Exact calculation of end-of-outbreak probabilities using contact tracing data.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023Article
- Angular reproduction numbers improve estimates of transmissibility when disease generation times are misspecified or time-varying.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2023Article
- Article
- Impact of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in COVID-19 disease surveillance on epidemiological parameters and case growth rates.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Pandemic control - do's and don'ts from a control theory perspective.World journal of methodology · 2022Review
- A quantitative method to project the probability of the end of an epidemic: Application to the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, 2020.Journal of theoretical biology · 2022Article
- EpiRegress: A Method to Estimate and Predict the Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Number.Viruses · 2022Article
- Real-time estimation of the epidemic reproduction number: Scoping review of the applications and challenges.PLOS digital health · 2022Article
- Fundamental limits on inferring epidemic resurgence in real time using effective reproduction numbers.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Challenges in evaluating risks and policy options around endemic establishment or elimination of novel pathogens.Epidemics · 2021Article
- Early intervention is the key to success in COVID-19 control.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- Improved estimation of time-varying reproduction numbers at low case incidence and between epidemic waves.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence.Lancet (London, England) · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Inferring the transmission potential of an infectious disease during low-incidence periods following epidemic waves is crucial for preparedness. In such periods, scarce data may hinder existing inference methods, blurring early-warning signals essential for discriminating between the likelihoods of resurgence versus elimination. Advanced insight into whether elevating caseloads (requiring swift community-wide interventions) or local elimination (allowing controls to be relaxed or refocussed on case-importation) might occur can separate decisive from ineffective policy. By generalizing and fusing recent approaches, we propose a novel early-warning framework that maximizes the information extracted from low-incidence data to robustly infer the chances of sustained local transmission or elimination in real time, at any scale of investigation (assuming sufficiently good surveillance). Applying this framework, we decipher hidden disease-transmission signals in prolonged low-incidence COVID-19 data from New Zealand, Hong Kong and Victoria, Australia. We uncover how timely interventions associate with averting resurgent waves, support official elimination declarations and evidence the effectiveness of the rapid, adaptive COVID-19 responses employed in these regions.
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