Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34887345›Full record

ArticleRMD open2021

Changes in ankylosing spondylitis incidence, prevalence and time to diagnosis over two decades.

Samantha S R Crossfield, Helena Marzo-Ortega, Sarah R Kingsbury, Mar Pujades-Rodriguez, Philip G Conaghan

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in RMD open, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 40 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
40citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

40 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  17. Low Frequency of HLA-B27 in Ankylosing Spondylitis Patients from Turkey: Insights from the Thrace Region.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Samantha S R CrossfieldLeeds Institute for Data Analytics, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK s.crossfield@leeds.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-7337-3527
Helena Marzo-OrtegaLeeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
Sarah R KingsburyLeeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
Mar Pujades-RodriguezLeeds Institute of Health Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.
Philip G ConaghanLeeds Institute of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Medicine, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3478-5665

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/L01629X
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesTo assess changes in ankylosing spondylitis (AS) incidence, prevalence and time to diagnosis, between 1998 and 2017.

methodsUsing UK GP data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we identified patients diagnosed with AS between 1998 and 2017. We estimated the annual AS incidence, prevalence and length of time from first recorded symptom of back pain to rheumatology referral and diagnosis.

resultsWe identified 12 333 patients with AS. The incidence declined from 0.72 (±0.14) per 10 000 patient-years in 1998 to 0.39 (±0.06) in 2007, with this decline significant only in men, then incidence rose to 0.57 (±0.11) in 2017. By contrast, prevalence increased between 1998 and 2017 (from 0.13%±0.006 to 0.18%±0.006), rising steeply among women (from 0.06%±0.05 to 0.10%±0.06) and patients aged ≥60 (from 0.14%±0.01 to 0.26%±0.01). The overall median time from first symptom to rheumatology referral was 4.87 years (IQR=1.42-10.23). The median time from first symptom to diagnosis rose between 1998 and 2017 (from 3.62 years (IQR=1.14-7.07) to 8.31 (IQR=3.77-15.89)) and was longer in women (6.71 (IQR=2.30-12.36)) than men (5.65 (IQR=1.66-11.20)).

conclusionAS incidence declined significantly between 1998 and 2007, with an increase between 2007 and 2017 that may be explained by an improvement in the recognition of AS or confidence in diagnosing AS over time, stemming from increased awareness of inflammatory back pain and the importance of early treatment. The rising AS prevalence may indicate improved patient survival. The persisting delay in rheumatology referral and diagnosis remains of concern, particularly in women.

Indexed as

RheumatologySpondylitis, AnkylosingBack PainFemaleHumansIncidenceMalePrevalenceankylosingankylosing spondylitisarthritisepidemiologyspondylitis

Identifiers

PMID34887345
PMCPMC8663075

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.