Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34886945›Full record

ArticleEuro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin2021

Estimating the transmission advantage of the D614G mutant strain of SARS-CoV-2, December 2019 to June 2020.

Kathy Leung, Yao Pei, Gabriel M Leung, Tommy Ty Lam, Joseph T Wu

Open access · diamondAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed
1.1field-weighted citation impact, top 19% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 19 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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  9. Genetic and evolutionary analysis of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in the region surrounding Islamabad, Pakistan.Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases · 2021
    Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Functional importance of the D614G mutation in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.Biochemical and biophysical research communications · 2021
    Review
  16. Vaccine efficacy in mutant SARS-CoV-2 variants.International journal of cell biology and physiology · 2021
    Article
  17. Early transmissibility assessment of the N501Y mutant strains of SARS-CoV-2 in the United Kingdom, October to November 2020.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2021
    Article
  18. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.

Kathy LeungWHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Yao PeiWHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Gabriel M LeungWHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Tommy Ty LamWHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Joseph T WuWHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
University of Hong Kong · HKShantou University · CN

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

IntroductionThe SARS-CoV-2 lineages carrying the amino acid change D614G have become the dominant variants in the global COVID-19 pandemic. By June 2021, all the emerging variants of concern carried the D614G mutation. The rapid spread of the G614 mutant suggests that it may have a transmission advantage over the D614 wildtype.AimOur objective was to estimate the transmission advantage of D614G by integrating phylogenetic and epidemiological analysis.MethodsWe assume that the mutation D614G was the only site of interest which characterised the two cocirculating virus strains by June 2020, but their differential transmissibility might be attributable to a combination of D614G and other mutations. We define the fitness of G614 as the ratio of the basic reproduction number of the strain with G614 to the strain with D614 and applied an epidemiological framework for fitness inference to analyse SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and sequence data.ResultsUsing this framework, we estimated that the G614 mutant is 31% (95% credible interval: 28-34) more transmissible than the D614 wildtype. Therefore, interventions that were previously effective in containing or mitigating the D614 wildtype (e.g. in China, Vietnam and Thailand) may be less effective against the G614 mutant.ConclusionOur framework can be readily integrated into current SARS-CoV-2 surveillance to monitor the emergence and fitness of mutant strains such that pandemic surveillance, disease control and development of treatment and vaccines can be adjusted dynamically.

Indexed as

COVID-19SARS-CoV-2HumansPandemicsPhylogenySpike Glycoprotein, CoronavirusSpike Glycoprotein, CoronavirusCOVID-19D614GfitnessmutationphylogeneticsSARS-CoV-2transmission advantagevariant of concern

Identifiers

PMID34886945
PMCPMC8662801
OpenAlexW4200560231

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.