ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2021
Epidemiological Trends of Malaria in Five Years and under Children of Nsanje District in Malawi, 2015-2019.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Association between persistent organic pollutants and malaria incidence in mainland China: a population-based surveillance and modeling analysis.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Prevalence and factors associated with malaria amongst under-five children in Senga Hill District, Northern Province, Zambia, a community-based cross-sectional study.Malaria journal · 2026Article
- Repeated biannual cross-sectional surveys in primary schools set baseline seasonal and spatial surveillance for malaria and schistosomiasis in the Shire Valley Transformation Programme (SVTP), Malawi.Current research in parasitology & vector-borne diseases · 2026Article
- Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling and mapping of malaria risk among children under five years of age in Ghana.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Towards malaria elimination: analysis of travel history and case forecasting using the SARIMA model in Limpopo Province.Parasitology research · 2023Article
- The impact of China's zero markup drug policy on drug costs for managing Parkinson's disease and its complications: an interrupted time series analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- Modeling the effect of climatic conditions and topography on malaria incidence using Poisson regression: a Retrospective study in Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.Frontiers in microbiology · 2023Article
- Awareness of the Malaria Vaccine in India.Cureus · 2022Article
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9 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundMalaria continues to be a major public health problem in Malawi and the greatest load of mortality and morbidity occurs in children five years and under. However, there is no information yet regarding trends and predictions of malaria incidence in children five years and under at district hospital level, particularly at Nsanje district hospital.
aimTherefore, this study aimed at investigating the trends of malaria morbidity and mortality in order to design appropriate interventions on the best approach to contain the disease in the near future. METHODOLOGY: Trend analysis of malaria morbidity and mortality together with time series analysis using the SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model was used to predict malaria incidence in Nsanje district.
resultsThe SARIMA model used malaria cases from 2015 to 2019 and created the best model to forecast the malaria cases in Nsanje from 2020 to 2022. An SARIMA (0, 1, 2) (0,1,1)
conclusionThe mortality and morbidity trend showed that malaria cases were growing at a fluctuating rate at Nsanje district hospital. The relative errors between the actual values and predicted values indicated that the predicted values matched the actual values well. Therefore, the model proved that it was adequate to forecast monthly malaria cases and it had a good fit, hence, was appropriate for this study.
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