Evidence map›Paper›PMID 34883106›Full record

ArticleMathematical biosciences2022

Using observed incidence to calibrate the transmission level of a mathematical model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics including case management and importation.

Clara Champagne, Maximilian Gerhards, Justin Lana, Bernardo García Espinosa, Christina Bradley, Oscar González, Justin M Cohen, Arnaud Le Menach, Michael T White, Emilie Pothin

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Mathematical biosciences, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Clara ChampagneSwiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4002, Switzerland; University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4001, Switzerland. Electronic address: clara.champagne@swisstph.ch.
Maximilian GerhardsSwiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4002, Switzerland; University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4001, Switzerland.
Justin LanaClinton Health Access Initiative, 383 Dorchester Ave, Suite 400, Boston, 02127, MA, USA.
Bernardo García EspinosaClinton Health Access Initiative, 383 Dorchester Ave, Suite 400, Boston, 02127, MA, USA.
Christina BradleyClinton Health Access Initiative, 383 Dorchester Ave, Suite 400, Boston, 02127, MA, USA.
Oscar GonzálezMinisterio de Salud de Panama, Calle culebra, Edificio 265 del Ministerio de Salud, Corregimiento de Ancón, Panama.
Justin M CohenClinton Health Access Initiative, 383 Dorchester Ave, Suite 400, Boston, 02127, MA, USA.
Arnaud Le MenachClinton Health Access Initiative, 383 Dorchester Ave, Suite 400, Boston, 02127, MA, USA.
Michael T WhiteInstitut Pasteur, Université de Paris, G5 Épidémiologie et Analyse des Maladies Infectieuses, Département de Santé Globale, Paris, F-75015, France.
Emilie PothinSwiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstrasse 57, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4002, Switzerland; University of Basel, Petersplatz 1, P.O. Box, Basel, CH-4001, Switzerland; Clinton Health Access Initiative, 383 Dorchester Ave, Suite 400, Boston, 02127, MA, USA.

Funding

Gates Foundation INV-008108
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In this work, we present a simple and flexible model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics which can be easily combined with routinely collected data on local and imported case counts to quantify transmission intensity and simulate control strategies. This model extends the model from White et al. (2016) by including case management interventions targeting liver-stage or blood-stage parasites, as well as imported infections. The endemic steady state of the model is used to derive a relationship between the observed incidence and the transmission rate in order to calculate reproduction numbers and simulate intervention scenarios. To illustrate its potential applications, the model is used to calculate local reproduction numbers in Panama and identify areas of sustained malaria transmission that should be targeted by control interventions.

Indexed as

Malaria, VivaxPlasmodium vivaxCase ManagementHumansIncidenceModels, TheoreticalPlasmodium falciparumMalaria modelPanamaPlasmodium vivax modelPlasmodium vivax radical cure

Identifiers

PMID34883106
PMCPMC8786669

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.