ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2021
The impact of climate suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 44 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
44 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 68 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic mapping review of therapeutic clinical trials in dengue.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Pooled it
- HLA alleles and dengue susceptibility across populations in the era of climate change: a comprehensive review.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Pooled it
- A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Urban vectors of Chagas disease in the American continent: A systematic review of epidemiological surveys.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Pooled it
- Barriers in operating proactive source reduction informed by an early warning system for dengue prevention: A qualitative study from end-user perspectives in Vietnam.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Climate-driven spatiotemporal dynamics of Aedes infestation and dengue transmission in Porto Alegre, Southern Brazil.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Article
- Leveraging probabilistic forecasts for dengue preparedness and control: The 2024 Dengue Forecasting Sprint in Brazil.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Epidemiological and digital syndromic surveillance data on dengue, chikungunya, and SARI in Brazil.Scientific data · 2026Article
- Dengue virus introduction and 2025 outlook: scenario-based evaluation of vaccination impact using mathematical modeling.Cadernos de saude publica · 2026Article
- Proactive Initiative to Establish a Dengue-Free Factory Assessment Framework in Dengue High-Risk Industrial Areas: A Narrative Review.Interdisciplinary perspectives on infectious diseases · 2026Review
- The Links Between Dengue Virus, Climate and Climate Change.Current topics in microbiology and immunology · 2026Review
- Dengue nowcasting in Brazil by combining official surveillance data and Google Trends information.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Unraveling regional variability in Dengue outbreaks in Brazil: leveraging the Moving Epidemics Method (MEM) and climate data to optimize vector control strategies.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Emergence and spatiotemporal incidence of dengue in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- A nationwide joint spatial modelling of simultaneous epidemics of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika in Colombia.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Ambient temperature and dengue hospitalization in Brazil: A 10-year period case time series analysis.Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.) · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal expansion of dengue in Brazilian Amazon between 2001 and 2021.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Spatial patterns and clustering of dengue incidence in Mexico: Analysis of Moran's index across 2,471 municipalities from 2022 to 2024.PloS one · 2025Article
- Article
- Geospatial clustering reveals dengue hotspots across Brazilian municipalities, 2024.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 5 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil's municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.